Diane Knox Balas
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Brian Harman is the Champion Golfer of the Year! What a display of grit, battling the elements, the unpredictability of links golf and a large crowd that were clearly not on his side (until the very end when Fleetwood and McIlroy didn’t stand a chance, that is). He was 120/1 at the start of the week, therefore I hope Harman’s unwavering performance won some of you some cash.
I didn’t win a penny – for The Open or the Barracuda! Tommy Fleetwood was looking strong for a while but fell by the wayside, and Scheffler showed he is human after all, finishing outside the top-12 in a golf tournament for the first time since November 2022. As for the Barracuda, Akshay Bhatia got his debut win on Tour, locking up his full card for another two years. The youngster is a talent, and I can’t wait to see what’s next for him. Stableford golf is so hard to handicap!
This week, Blaine, Minnesota is the destination for the PGA Tour’s 3M Open, a tournament that was won by Tony Finau last year.
Justin Thomas is a big talking point this week, committing to play just last week after missing the cut at The Open (and shooting +11 in the opening round!). As it stands, JT is outside the top-70, therefore needs points to make it into the FedExCup Playoffs, which is quite hard to believe considering he’s made it all the way to the Tour Championship (top-30) for the last seven years.
But hey, this tournament sparked an incredible run of form for Finau, who also won the following week, so maybe it will do the same for Thomas. Tony is back to defend his title, and Cameron Young, Sepp Straka and Emiliano Grillo are teeing it up, fresh off great weeks at Royal Liverpool.
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TPC Twin Cities : What you need to know
This par 71 measures in at 7,431 yards. There’s a lot of water out there for the guys to contend with, but this parkland course will look very different to the links courses over the past few weeks.
Accuracy off the tee will be somewhat important, especially for shorter hitters with some rough and tree-lined fairways, but distance will really set the guys up for tidy wedge shots into these receptive greens. When Cameron Champ won in 2021, he was 10th in distance for the week, but 92nd in accuracy. Finau was long and accurate, hitting 12% more fairways than the field average.
The greens are large and relatively easy to hit, but good iron play is rewarded around here. They’re also easy to read and rank in the bottom-3 of putting difficulty.
The finishing hole is a par-5 that has seen it’s fair share of drama in the four short years this tournament has been in existence. In 2019, Bryson DeChambeau was in the hunt after an eagle on the 18th, but Matt Wolff made his own long eagle putt to clinch victory by 1 stroke.
I’m really looking at total driving (distance + accuracy) as well as shorter hitters who are great iron players. I also want guys who can make birdies, enter the week in form and have their FedExCup position firmly on their minds.
Knox’s Knockout 3M Open picks
Emiliano Grillo (+3000 at PointsBet)
Grillo is coming off a T6 finish at The Open and arrives in Minnesota, off that long haul flight, with a ton of confidence. Last year at the 3M, Emiliano finished runner-up to Finau and has two additional top-10 finishes here. The Argentinian’s had kind of a streaky season, but he got a win back at the end of May at Colonial, has an additional four top-7 finishes and sits at No.23 in the FedExCup standings. His off-the-tee and approach stats are his strengths, and Grillo is 8th in total birdies for the season. Win No.2 could be this week and I like him at 30/1!
Sepp Straka (+3000 at DraftKings)
It’s hard to look past Straka this week. The Austrian won the John Deere Classic, skipped the Scottish Open and then finished runner-up at The Open following a final round of -2 in tough conditions. Sepp sits within the top-20 for both total driving and driving accuracy, plus he had a top-20 finish here three years ago. With a young, revitalized European Ryder Cup team looking probable for September, Straka must want his place secured, whether that’s in the rankings or as a pick for captain Luke Donald. Lots of motivation to perform this week.
Keith Mitchell (+4000 at FanDuel)
We know it’s going to take good overall driving this week – distance and accuracy. Keith Mitchell currently leads the Tour in total driving, and is a player who needs to capitalize on that to secure his position in the playoffs. Sitting at 66th entering the week, Mitchell is also 5th in strokes gained off-the-tee and 10th in driving distance. He didn’t play here last year but finished 5th in 2021 at TPC Twin Cities. He’s coming off missed cuts at the Scottish Open and then at last week’s Barracuda, which has no doubt pushed his odds up slightly for this week. I like Keith at 40/1 when things are getting down to the wire.
James Hahn (+20000 at BetMGM)
This week, I like guys who are playing well, have good course history here and have to lay it all on the line to boost their number in the rankings. James Hahn fits that mould. He’s coming off a T6 finish last week at the Barracuda Championship, and returns to a tournament where he finished T4 last year. Outside of the top-70 for the playoffs in a few weeks, the rest of the field have until the end of the year to finish inside the top-125 to retain full playing privileges. Right now, Hahn sits at 162nd, therefore has a lot of work to do. Maybe last week, and some good vibes from last year, will propel James to victory. I’ll also take him for a top-10 at +1400.
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3M Open Prop Bets
Vincent Normann top-10 (+500 at DraftKings)
Normann is a new kid on the block, and made his presence known when he won the Barbasol Championship two weeks ago. He followed it up with a T25 last week at the Barracuda, and now has eight top-25 finishes in his rookie season. He gained almost two and a half strokes on the field off-the-tee at the Barbasol, is a huge hitter and needs one final push to keep his place in the playoff top-70.
Brice Garnett top-20 top (+900 at Bet365)
When looking at consistent performers here, Brice Garnett is high up on that list. In four appearances, he hasn’t finished worse than 31st, and his best result came in ’21 when he finished T16. 9/1 for another top-20 looks great to me!
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