Ricky Dimon
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Golf may not be one of the four major American sports, but it should not be forgotten by the betting public. And it certainly shouldn’t be forgotten by fans of Pickswise. Our golf picks have been red hot in 2022 thanks to analyst Diane Knox Balas.
There is plenty of value to be found on the links, and this time of year – the middle of summer – is bettors’ favorite. All four majors are played in the span of four months, beginning with the Masters in April and going through the British Open in July. Next up on the 2022 schedule is the British Open, which takes place this week at none other than the home of golf: St. Andrew’s in Scotland.
Let’s discuss some of the common golf markets before getting into more British Open specifics.
Golf betting markets
Futures
Futures probably draw the most interest when it comes to golf. It’s easy to see why. This sport is unique in that there aren’t really one-on-one, head-to-head matchups (the WGC-Match Play Championship is one exception). Although there is a market for arbitrary matchups between certain players on certain days to see who can go lower, they aren’t actually playing against each other like two players would in a tennis tournament. Thus golf betting is driven mostly by futures. Odds for most tournaments will be posted by sportsbooks a few days before they begin (generally Thursday is the starting day, with very few exceptions outside of the aforementioned Match Play Championship). For the majors, those odds are generally posted many months in advance.
The most popular futures bets, as you might expect, are on outright tournament winners. Pre-tournament, favorites to win are generally in the +800 to +1100 range. Yes, it’s that hard to win a golf tournament even for the best players in the world. Maybe if someone is totally dominating the tour at the time of an event and the rest of the field at that particular event isn’t overly strong, you could find a favorite at +700 or so. But that is rare — and it has to be said most likely wouldn’t offer a lot of value.
Of course, you don’t have to go big by betting on someone to win an entire tournament. There are also markets for finishing in the top 10, the top 20, and making the cut. Someone who is +1200 to win a title, for example, could be +150 to finish in the top 10 and -170 to place in the top 20. Cuts happen after two of the four rounds at traditional tournaments are complete. Generally speaking, two-thirds of the field advances to compete on the two ensuing weekend rounds. Title favorites could be as low as -1500 to make the cut.
Over/Under
The total for an individual golfer’s score is another betting option. Such a market is most often offered for the opening Thursday rounds — especially at the four majors. It’s a simple concept, similar to game totals in other sports. Will a player shoot over or under his quota? If the over/under for a golfer’s round is 69.5 and he shoots 70 or worse, an over bet cashes; 69 or better gets the win for under tickets.
Head-to-head
As mentioned above, some books will pit two golfers against each other in a figurative but not necessarily literal head-to-head matchup and you can bet on which one will post a better score on a particular day. The official name is two-ball betting. Three-ball betting is the same concept, one you will often find for the first two rounds of majors when competitors are playing in groups of three.
The British Open odds and predictions
Who will join the ranks of major champions in 2022? So far the list includes Scottie Scheffler (Masters), Justin Thomas (PGA Championship) and Matt Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open). It would be no surprise if the quartet ends up featuring two Americans (Scheffler and Thomas) and two Europeans (Fitzpatrick and a player to be named this coming weekend). After all, Rory McIlroy is a +900 favorite at DraftKings and he is followed closely behind by Jon Rahm at +1200. Scheffler and Xander Schauffele – who is coming off a win at the Scottish Open – are +1400.
The return of Tiger Woods will be a significant storyline this week. Of Woods’ 15 major triumphs, two have come at St. Andrew’s (2000 and 2005). The 46-year-old withdrew from the PGA Championship because of his injured leg and he skipped the U.S. Open to rest up for the British Open, which he prioritized based on his perceived chance of success. That’s not to say Woods is among the favorites; he is going off at +4000.
For this tournament and all other majors, there are other markets such as the leader from a certain country. For example, when those odds become available later this week Louis Oosthuizen will be favored to be the top South African and Cameron Smith will be the No. 1 choice to be the best among Australians on the leaderboard.
Pickswise is the home of free expert Golf Picks and Golf Predictions. Our PGA expert picks go live every Monday or Tuesday, so check out our latest golf picks, best bets, and analysis for this week’s PGA tournament now.
