Matt Selz
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The penultimate race before the NASCAR playoffs is also the penultimate road race on the 2022 NASCAR schedule. Watkins Glen International is the host for this Sunday’s race and is all set to put up another very good race as it’s become known for. There are just two open playoff spots left at this point, with one assumed to go to Kurt Busch, get ready to see some desperation moves for some drivers to win.
Watkins Glen Layout and Betting Strategy
The Glen is a 2.45-mile, 11-turn road layout in upstate New York. It’s been the site of many good NASCAR races and this year is the 10th anniversary of one of the craziest finishes in history with the final lap of the 2012 Watkins Glen race. This is known as one of the fastest road courses on the schedule as well. It is more comparable to Road America rather than say Sonoma or COTA due to its less technical layout. We also typically see more passing here than at the more technical road courses which means that qualifying isn’t quite as important here, though starting up front is always a leg up.
For betting purposes, we want to look at the drivers and teams that have been good at road races this year already as it’s unlikely a team simply finds a magic change this late in the year for a specific track type. We also want to be careful about taking past results out of context like wrecks at Indy Road or pit issues at COTA and Sonoma.
Go Bowling at The Glen outright winner best bets
Odds listed are from FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Tyler Reddick (+600)
Reddick has won the last two races on road courses. At Road America, the most comparable road layout to Watkins Glen, Reddick was able to run down and handily pass Chase Elliott for the win. The setups in the RCR cars have been fast at road courses all season with Austin Dillon, his teammate, also showing good speed earlier in the year when right turns are involved. He’s previously not had the best runs on road courses but we have to roll with the mojo he clearly possesses right now.
Austin Cindric (+1000)
Cindric is known as a road racing specialist. He grew up racing on them and has shown up well at them so far in his young Cup career. Now we come to a track where he’s had success at lower series. He’s also had finishes of P8 or better at all four road tracks already raced on this year. As he looks to gear up for a playoff run, a win would really make things click and given his background, he’s a major threat for that.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
Buescher is perhaps the most underrated road racer in the Cup Series and backs that claim up with very good finishes in the last few such races this year. There’s still a spot for him to be able to make the playoffs if he can pull off a win either this weekend or at Daytona with this weekend being his best shot. The RFK cars have been growing in speed in the second half of this season and he could use that burgeoning speed to capitalize on a win and a playoff shot in what’s already been a career year for him.
Michael McDowell (+4000)
Speaking of career years, McDowell is in the middle of one. He’s also a guy who still needs a win to clinch a spot in the playoffs and his best shots are this weekend and next given his skills at road courses and plate tracks. There’s clearly risk here given the odds, however, the strength of his runs on similar tracks this year should mitigate the risk and give him a better-than-average shot at competing for a win on Sunday.
Best Prop Bets for Watkins Glen
Odds listed are from FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Kevin Harvick Top-5 Finish (+350)
Harvick has finished top-five in three of the last five races this season, as well as nabbing a top-five at Sonoma. At Watkins Glen over the last three races, all three have seen Harvick finish top-eight and top-four once. The speed has been excellent over the last few races and should be great again this weekend.
Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish (+170)
Gibbs is known as a very good road racer in his Xfinity career. I mean, he won his first start in the series at Daytona Road Course and then won here last year. The Toyotas have been a bit rough on road courses, however, Kurt Busch’s 45-car has run about the best of all of them. Given that this is a faster road course and Gibbs has found success on it previously, he should have a good shot at finishing in the top 10.
Ty Gibbs Top Toyota (+1000)
As was mentioned above, the Toyotas have been struggling on road courses this season. Bubba Wallace and Kurt Busch have had the most speed on these layouts and with Gibbs filling in for Busch, the speed should carry over. He’s also been very good at road racing in the Xfinity series including a win here last year. If the JGR foursome is lacking speed again, we could see this bet pay off for a better return than we deserve on Gibbs.
Kevin Harvick (+140) vs Ryan Blaney
Harvick has simply been faster over the last few races than Blaney. Now add in that Harvick has had better runs on road courses than Blaney both this season and at Watkins Glen over the last few races – that’s a recipe for success for this bet. I’d have expected it to be pretty even between the two but getting a +140 line is even better.
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