Matt Selz
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Another chaotic race weekend is on tap this weekend with the GEICO 500 at Talladega. The Alabama superspeedway is known for it’s pack-racing style and the big wrecks that come from it. So what does this mean for betting for us this weekend in terms of winners and props? Well, let’s look at some strategy for both of those and then look at outright winner picks and qualifying props. Weekend props will be up following qualifying on Saturday.
Talladega Betting Strategy
This is a weekend in which basically every driver has longer odds than they normally would at just about any other track. That’s because here — more than anywhere else — anyone can win. The pack racing and the chaos that stems from it can wreck anyone at any time. All of that being said, though, there are predictable outcomes to a degree. All but one of the last 10 winners at Talladega, in non-shortened races, have started in the top 12 starting spots — including a couple of pole-sitters winning. In terms of betting finishing position props, over the last five Talladega races 70 percent of the top-10 finishers started outside of the top 10. If we are talking matchup props, we’re looking hard at who’s done what recently at these types of races.
Odds were taken from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Editors Note: Race Props will be added following qualifying on Saturday afternoon.
GEICO 500 Winner Bets
Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace +1400
We’re kicking things off with a 2-for-1 at 14/1 odds. We’re honestly splitting hairs here between these two drivers at plate tracks right now. Keselowski has four wins at Talladega and is always a factor no matter how badly his season is going. Wallace won here last year and has finished in the top 5 in the last several straight plate races. Both drivers have the skill and drafting ability to stick at the front of the field when it matters.
William Byron +1800
Byron won at Daytona last year and won the Atlanta plate-style race earlier this year. In two of the last three races here he’s finished inside the top-four including a runner-up in this race last year. Byron has been the most consistent plate racer in the Hendrick Motorsports stable the last few years and that shouldn’t change this week.
Justin Haley 60-1
Haley is a well-known plate racer who’s been able to get multiple plate wins across all three NASCAR series so far. The Kaulig cars have been fast all year. That combination of drafting skill and a fast car can be a great combination at a track like this. He was running well at Daytona as well before getting caught up in an incident. If he can avoid that bad luck at ‘Dega, he’ll be in the mix late.
Erik Jones 70-1
That Jones Boy has four top 10s in the last eight Talladega races. Making him one of only seven drivers in the field who can say that. And that doesn’t include a couple races he got spun on the last lap inside the top 10. The No. 43 team is used to having a driver able to compete at plate races having previously had Bubba Wallace in contention here too. Jones has also run well at Daytona and Atlanta this year — was top 5 in stage one at Atlanta. These are too long of odds for a guy who’s run well here and finished runner-up a few races ago on this track.
GEICO 500 Qualifying Prop Bets
Alex Bowman +600 To Win Pole
It’s no secret that the Hendrick Chevys are fast at plate race qualifying. Hence the reason they are all top-seven odds on the board at DraftKings. Bowman is my pick of the four though. Every year dating back to 2018 Bowman has his Chevy on the front row at Daytona. Skipping the 2020 and 2021 seasons for ‘Dega — qualifying was set by a formula — Bowman matches Chase Elliott for best average starting spot in the field for the prior four races at this venue.
Aric Almirola +2000 To Win Pole
Almirola loves superspeedway racing. So does his No. 10 Stewart-Haas Ford. In the last three races here that had qualifying, Almirola started P4, P2 and P5. On top of that he broke up the Hendrick 1-2-3-4 start at Daytona by putting his 10-car P4 in qualifying. It’s his last season and he’d love nothing more than to start one of his favorite tracks up front.
Ross Chastain +2000 To Win Pole
Chastain might be a surprising pick but hear me out. He qualified P7 at Daytona and backed it up with another P7 at Atlanta. All Chevy engines are relatively the same, meaning he’s got basically the same power unit as the Hendrick cars. We have seen Chastain get faster each week this year and given he’s already been in the top-seven, it’s not a big stretch to see him on the pole for the GEICO 500.
Early Talladega Race Prop Bets
These will be updated over the weekend following Qualifying.
Erik Jones +800 Top-Five Finish
The same reason we’re betting him at 70-1 to win is the same reason the top-five bet makes sense. He’s one of the more consistent plate racers in the field, especially at Talladega. These odds suggest that Vegas thinks Jones only has an 11 percent shot of finishing in the top-five. He’s pulled that off twice in the last three races here — or 66 percent of the time. That puts odds in our favor on this one.
Ty Dillon +225 Top-10 Finish
Dillon has the best average finish in the field over the last eight Talladega races. In his last six races here, there’s no finish worse than P17. Missing a top 10 at Daytona earlier this year by a matter of feet only strengthens his case. A guy this good at moving up through the field in plate races is hard to ignore at these odds.
David Ragan +250 Top-10 Finish
Ragan is a part-time driver at this point but he knows his strengths. His best tracks are plate tracks — hence why he’s doing only plate races this year. He nabbed a P8 finish at Daytona after starting P34 and then a P18 at Atlanta after starting P35. This isn’t a bad bet to put a little bit on for a nice return potential.
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