Friday's NFL Preseason Week 2 parlay at mega (+581 odds): Patriots step up

Following an exciting Week 1 of the NFL preseason, all 32 NFL teams will be in action for what is now Week 2. We’ve got a full slate of games on hand, including a number of games on Thursday and Friday. Friday’s lineup is especially intriguing with the likes of New England, Green Bay and the Rams taking the field in addition to a potential appearance from Saints quarterback Jameis Winston.

It’s time to take a look at the three components of Friday’s mega parlay.

New England Patriots -2.5 (-115)

New Orleans Saints +3 (-110)

Houston Texans -2 (-110)

Parlay odds: +581

For this parlay, we are going with two favorites against the spread and an underdogs on the spread. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.

New England Patriots -2.5 (-115) over Carolina Panthers

Betting against Bill Belichick at home is rarely a good idea, even in the preseason, and I still wouldn’t recommend it against a Carolina Panthers team that will likely play each of its quarterbacks in hopes of determining a starter. But in reality, none of those quarterbacks scare me, nor should they intimidate a well-coached New England defense. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold might get a few series’ each, but that’s not guaranteed. Additionally, the Patriots have experienced nothing but success against either quarterback in recent years. Furthermore, Belichick has a great track record against rookie quarterbacks, so Matt Corral’s presence shouldn’t be feared either. I don’t expect Belichick’s group to have any trouble with the Panthers’ middling offense.

Even though the Patriots lost in Week 1, backing New England has been historically profitable in August. In fact, the Patriots are 9-3 over the last 4 preseasons, including an unblemished 3-0 record in 2021. Those wins were not a result of luck either, as they won these contests by an average of over 15 points. There’s clear value on the better team and coach in this matchup.

Read our full game preview for Patriots vs Panthers

New Orleans Saints +3 (-110) over Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played a preseason game in 4 years, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon. And while Green Bay isn’t expected to play Rodgers in this matchup, the Saints may end up playing Jameis Winston. The Saints quarterback didn’t play last week against the Texans because of a foot injury, but he should play on Friday barring any setbacks. Even if Winston doesn’t suit up, Andy Dalton and second-year QB Ian Book know how to run the offense in his absence.

On the defensive side of the ball, New Orleans was excellent last week despite most starters being out. The Saints created havoc all night, forcing 3 turnovers, 6 punts and dominated on 3rd down against Houston. As Green Bay will be without one of the team’s key targets in Christian Watson, the passing game should suffer as a result. New Orleans likely won’t pull any punches defensively, and I could see this being a lower-scoring affair. That’s why I’ll take the full 3 points in this matchup.

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Houston Texans -2 (-110) over Los Angeles Rams

While the Rams are fresh off Super Bowl victory, the Texans are expected to end up with the NFL’s worst record in 2022. But for my money, that shouldn’t affect how this preseason matchup turns out. In reality, I’d give the edge to the Texans given the success they had in a Week 1 preseason win over the Saints. New running back Dameon Pierce has already impressed, and starting quarterback Davis Mills should be expected to play for at least the opening quarter on Friday.

The Rams have to be concerned about their depth chart, and with Matthew Stafford’s injury issues lingering, this team will likely want to refrain from playing any important contributors in this exhibition game. Since Houston is still a rebuilding team, that leaves playing time available for all impact players across the board. This usually produces better results for teams in the Texans’ position during these exhibition games. Lay the points with Houston in this matchup.

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