Ricky Dimon
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It was an eventful first week at the French Open, where Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and Iga Swiatek all came back from the brink of defeat to remain alive in their title quests. Swiatek will be back in action when the fourth round gets underway on Sunday, while Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz headlined the schedule on the men’s side.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 8 at Roland Garros.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Matteo Arnaldi Over 35.5 games (-120)
Arnaldi is a sizable underdog in this contest, but the up-and-coming Italian cannot be discounted. He has been playing by far the best tennis of his young career dating back to last summer and it’s clear that he absolutely loves the big stage. Arnaldi advanced to the fourth round of the 2023 U.S. Open, helped lead his nation to the 2023 Davis Cup title and is now in another major fourth round – this time in Paris. Arnaldi’s straight-set upset of Andrey Rublev in round 3 was a real statement. Tsitsipas is also playing well, but I can’t see him getting past such a quality opponent with ease and 35.5 is not a big number.
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Grigor Dimitrov Over 39.5 games (-120)
For a head-to-head series that is 5-0 (in Dimitrov’s favor), this matchup could hardly be more competitive. Their previous encounters have been so close that you almost have no choice to bet against the over – especially when a 39.5 total is quite small for a match involving Hurkacz. Three of their 5 meetings have been decided by final-set tiebreakers. Four of the 5 have needed a third set (in a best-of-3 format). Their lone contest that didn’t go to a third set was a 7-6, 7-6 scoreline. Needless to say, the margins between these 2 guys could not be smaller. It’s also worth noting that both been in stellar form this season. Dimitrov is sporting a 27-8 record, while Hurkacz’s clay-court swing features a title in Estoril. Sunday’s showdown has all the makings of a high-quality thriller – one that should go at least 4 sets and probably 5.
Ons Jabeur ML over Clara Tauson (-145)
Jabeur has been a winner for me twice already at Roland Garros and there is no reason to get off the bandwagon now. She was slumping earlier in 2024 but seems to have found her game when it matters most, which is no surprise given her propensity for success at Grand Slams (she is already a 3-time finalist at slams). Jabeur picked up a very good win over Leylah Fernandez in round 3, so confidence should be high. Meanwhile, this marks Tauson’s first-ever appearance in a slam fourth round. Inexperience could be a significant factor in such a high-pressure situation, especially against a savvy veteran like Jabeur.
