Ricky Dimon
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Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will be back in action as the French Open continues with fourth-round action on Sunday. Alcaraz could have a difficult match with Lorenzo Musetti on the other side of the net, while Djokovic will most likely cruise at the expense of little-known Peruvian Juan Pablo Varillas.
However, there is better value to be had on other matches. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 8 schedule.
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Elina Svitolina over 11.5 games won vs. Daria Kasatkina (-125)
Taking the over on Svitolina’s game total gives us multiple outlets through which to cash this bet. Any outright victory for the Ukrainian will result in a successful play, and a 3-set loss should also be enough to get the job done. Only a straight-set loss (unless it’s 2 tiebreakers) is a problem, and I don’t see Svitolina getting blown out on Sunday. Kasatkina is playing well, but she is winless in this head-to-head series with a hopeless 0-6 record. A sample size of 6 matches is a large enough one to know that this is a serious matchup problem for Kasatkina. Four of the Russian’s 6 losses have been of the straight-set variety, and one of the three-setters ended with a 6-0 third-set whitewash by Svitolina. Although Svitolina may not be the Svitolina of old, she is in resurgent form with a 7-match winning streak that includes a title last week on the red clay of Strasbourg.
Elise Mertens ML over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-110)
Pavlyuchenkova made a surprising run to the 2021 Roland Garros championship match, but since then she is just 8-6 overall on clay. The Russian missed almost all of the 2022 campaign due to injury, so simply advancing to round 4 is impressive. Pavlyuchenkova is coming off back-to-back 3-set struggles, so fatigue could be a factor – eespecially for someone who is returning from an extended layoff and not yet back in peak form. Mertens, on the other hand, crushed #3 seed Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-3 on Friday. The Belgian has not dropped a single set through 3 rounds.
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Parlay: Karen Khachanov ML over Lorenzo Sonego and Karolina Muchova ML over Elina Avanesyan (-115)
Khachanov has quietly been one of the best players in the world at the last three Grand Slams. He advanced to the semifinals of the 2022 U.S. Open, the semifinals of the 2023 Australian Open, and is now in the fourth round of the French. Sonego has never been past this stage of any slam and I don’t expect this one to be his first.
As for the women’s match, Avanesyan had never won a main-draw match at a major prior to arriving in Paris. I can’t see her suddenly getting to the quarters, especially not at the expense of an experienced veteran like Muchova – who boasts a 22-7 record this year (7-2 on clay) and upset Maria Sakkari in the first round before making quick work of an in-form Irina Camelia-Begu 6-3, 6-2 in the third round.
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