I have already endured some atrociously bad beats during this French Open, but 2 profitable performances on Wednesday and Thursday (2-1 on each day) give me some momentum heading into the beginning of third-round action on Friday.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will be among those taking the court, while the women’s lineup features Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 6 schedule as spots in second week of the tournament start to be handed out.
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Elina Avanesyan +3.5 games over Clara Tauson (-103)
Avanesyan is clearly a clay-court specialist. The 20-year-old has won 112 matches on clay in her young career; she has won 29 on all other surfaces combined. One of those 112 was an extremely impressive defeat of Belinda Bencic in the Roland Garros first round on Monday. Tauson has won more matches on both outdoor hard courts and indoor hard courts than on dirt. The 20-year-old from Denmark played a long three-setter on Wednesday against Leylah Fernandez, so fatigue could be somewhat of a factor. I wouldn’t be surprised if Avanesyan wins this one outright.
Parlay: Hubert Hurkacz over Juan Pablo Varillas and Andrey Rublev over Lorenzo Sonego (-120)
Both Hurkacz and Rublev should win without too much trouble on Friday. Hurkacz required five sets against both David Goffin and Tallon Griekspoor in rounds 1 and 2, respectively, but they are tough opponents. Varillas is a capable clay-court player, but he had never won a main-draw match at a Grand Slam prior to arriving in Paris. Needless to say, this is going to be a huge stage for him.
Rublev has rolled so far for the most part, winning his first 2 matches in straight sets. Sonego is in solid form, himself, but round 3 is often his stumbling block at majors and he has never defeated anyone ranked better than #30 in a major.
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Parlay: Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 sets over Diego Schwartzman and Karen Khachanov -1.5 sets over Thanasi Kokkinakis (+110)
I can’t see either Tsitsipas or Schwartzman losing more than a set. Schwartzman has been a complete disaster this season and Tsitsipas — as expected — improved dramatically from round 1 (a 5-setter against Jiri Vesely) to round 2 (a straight-set rout of Roberto Carballes Baena). The Greek is a former French Open finalist (2021); he should be way too good for Schwartzman.
Kokkinakis is coming off a 5-set battle with Stan Wawrinka whereas Khachanov thrashed Radu Albot in easy straight sets on Wednesday. Moreover, Kokkinakis has never been past the third round of a slam in his entire career.
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