Ricky Dimon
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If the weather cooperates – which it hasn’t so far this week in Paris – we are in for a treat at the French Open on Thursday. Pretty much the entire second round will be played, as Wednesday was wiped out by rain aside from matches under the 2 courts with roofs. That means all of my Day 4 best bets are still active, as well.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 5 schedule.
Mariano Navone +1.5 sets over Tomas Machac (-135)
This is a matchup that should set up just about perfectly for Navone. Most importantly, it is on clay. A laughable 211 of the his 215 lifetime match wins on the pro tour have come on dirt. Calling Navone a clay-court specialist would be the understatement of the century. Additionally, Machac is no slouch of an opponent but he played last week at an ATP 250 event Geneva and went all the way to the final before losing to Casper Ruud. Putting in a big effort with a long week immediately preceding a major usually isn’t a recipe for success. Machac needed just 3 sets to beat Nuno Borges on Tuesday, but fatigue could still be a factor for the Czech. Like Machac, Navone has also been on fire for basically the duration of this season. The Argentine has a good chance to pull off an upset – or at the very least extend Machac to 5 sets.
Yulia Putintseva +2.5 games over Paula Badosa (-115)
This is another match in which the underdog has a real shot to win outright but if nothing else should keep it close. Badosa has been dealing with all kinds of injuries in recent seasons and her 2024 comeback has been mediocre at best (10-10 match record). She did well to defeat Katie Boulter 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 in round 1, but Boulter is borderline hopeless on clay so that really isn’t a great result. Physically it won’t be easy for Badosa to recover from a tough 3-set struggle, either. Putintseva, on the other hand, crushed former Roland-Garros runner-up Sloane Stephens 6-1, 6-2 while improving to 9-3 on clay for the season. The Kazakh won her only previous encounter with Badosa on the hard courts of Toronto in 2022 and since then things have mostly gone downhill for the Spaniard.
Daniil Medvedev -1.5 sets over Miomir Kecmanovic and Karen Khachanov -1.5 sets over Josef Kovalik (-106)
Medvedev has completely dominated Kecmanovic in the past, which is no surprise given their rankings and overall tennis accomplishments. The fifth-ranked Russian is 3-0 in the head-to-head series and 7-0 in total sets, with set scorelines of 6-2, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(0), 6-1, 6-0 and 6-3. Kecmanovic, ranked 57th, has a losing record for the 2024 campaign (13-14). As such, there is no reason to think anything will change in this one. Meanwhile, Khachanov has an ideal second-round draw against Kovalik. The 31-year-old Slovak is a little-known journeyman who is the world #145 and he needed lucky-loser spot in the main draw after falling in qualifying. Kovalik had not won an ATP-level match since last July before getting past Marcos Giron in the French Open first round. Khachanov is very good on clay and should prevail with ease.
