Ricky Dimon
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I have already endured some atrociously bad beats during this French Open, but a profitable effort on Wednesday gives me some momentum heading into the finale of a second-round competition on Thursday.
Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff will be among those taking the court, while the men’s lineup features Casper Ruud and Jannik Sinner. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 5 schedule. I made 3 plus-money picks on Wednesday and cashed 2 of them, so the strategy remains the same.
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Tommy Paul ML over Nicolas Jarry (+120)
Nicolas Jarry has sustained some decent form this season with a clay-court title in February in Santiago and another one less than a week ago in Geneva. However, he is still nowhere near as consistent as Tommy Paul. There is a reason why the American is ranked #17 in the world and Jarry comes in unseeded at +35. That’s not to say that Jarry is a pushover, but he shouldn’t be the favorite in this matchup. Paul is underrated on clay and even had Dominic Thiem on the ropes at Roland Garros in 2019 – back when Thiem was in his prime and went on to finish runner-up to Rafael Nadal. Paul is a much better player 4 years later, too. The 26-year-old American has a favorable draw in Paris and looks poised to make a run. Moreover, Jarry’s title run last week in Geneva may not be a good thing; fatigue could be a factor.
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Frances Tiafoe ML over Aslan Karatsev (+100)
This is another matchup in which the odds are an overreaction to recent results. Aslan Karatsev made a surprising run to the Madrid semifinals, but he otherwise hasn’t done much of anything this season. Tiafoe, on the other hand, is up to #12 in the rankings thanks in part to a semifinal run at the 2022 U.S. Open and a semifinal showing earlier this year in Indian Wells. The American loves the big stage and is playing well at the biggest events on tour. He is also no slouch on clay and he won a clay-court title in Houston earlier this spring and has reached 2 other finals on this surface. Give me Tiafoe as a slight underdog all day long.
Parlay: Mirra Andreeva ML over Diane Parry and Borna Coric ML over Pedro Cachin (+100)
Mirra Andreeva is the current sensation of the WTA Tour. The 16-year-old has the personality of a star and the game to back it up. She is 18-2 this season with multiple titles in the proverbial minor leagues of tennis plus a run to the fourth round in Madrid. Parry lost to the older Andreeva sister (Erika) earlier this season in Lyon and now has an even tougher test on her hands with the younger sister.
Meanwhile, Pedro Cachin is coming off a 5-setter against Dominic Thiem – a decent result but also far from spectacular given Thiem’s current woes. The Argentinian has never made it past round 2 at Roland Garros and I don’t expect him to do so this time around with Borna Coric standing in his way. Coric is the better all-around player and has far more experience, especially at Grand Slams.
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