Ricky Dimon
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The French Open bad beats continued on Tuesday, when I once again compiled a 1-2 record on my 3 best bets. Clara Burel had a game point with Sara Sorribes Tormo serving at 4-2 in the second that would have clinched at least a push of the +4 game spread. Burel proceeded to lose that game and then drop serve immediately thereafter for a 7-6, 6-2 loss. Meanwhile, J.J. Wolf led Yoshihito Nishioka 2 sets to love before collapsing and losing in five.
None was worse than Monday, when Arthur Fils trailed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2 sets to 1 but led 3-0 in the fourth set. The Frenchman had to win just 1 more game to clinch sending the match over the 35.5 game total. Sure enough, Fils lost 6 consecutive games to end it at 35 and break the hearts of Over bettors – including myself.
Alas, we move ahead as the season’s second Grand Slam continues into round 2 on Wednesday – when Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will be among those taking the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 4 schedule.
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Kamilla Rakhimova ML over Magdalena Frech (+120)
At the very least this should be an even-money matchup, so I will happily back Rakhimova well into plus money. She won their only previous clay-court encounter in straight sets last spring in Madrid. Now 21 years old, Rakhimova has more experience and has climbed inside the top 100 to a career-high ranking of No. 82 (six spots ahead of Frech). Frech doesn’t have any particularly notable wins on clay so far this season and does have some bad losses. Rakhimova has great value at +120.
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Lorenzo Sonego ML over Ugo Humbert (+101)
Prior to beating Adrian Mannarino on Monday, Humbert had never won a match at Roland Garros – not even in qualifying. That actually isn’t a huge surprise, as the Frenchman’s game does not work very well on clay. Humbert has won almost 100 more matches than he has lost across all levels of tennis throughout his professional career, but he has a losing record on clay (43-44). Sonego just beat Humbert 3-6, 7-5, 7-5 on the red clay of Monte-Carlo less than two months ago and I expect the Italian to have the upper hand once again.
Parlay: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina over Luca Van Assche and Sebastian Korda over Sebastian Ofner (+120)
Davidovich Fokina will have the French crowd against him, but that was also the case against Fils on Monday and the Spaniard handled it without much trouble. ADF is a former Monte-Carlo finalist (2022), so he knows what he is doing on this surface. Van Assche is a name to watch – especially for French fans – but he is inexperienced.
Meanwhile, Korda is coming back from a wrist injury and looked very good in a round-1 rout of fellow American Mackenzie McDonald. That is encouraging to say the least, and he now has a great draw against Ofner.
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