Ricky Dimon
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As expected, Iga Swiatek will be part of the women’s singles final at Roland Garros on Saturday. Standing in her way of a third French Open trophy is an unexpected and unseeded opponent in the form of Karolina Muchova. Will the world #1 take care of business, or is a massive upset in the cards?
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for Day 14 at Roland Garros.
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Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Under 19.5 games (-130)
Swiatek has not lost a set so far this fortnight and she has gone over this number just once – against Beatriz Haddad Maia in the semifinals. Prior to Thursday, the 22-year-old from Poland had not been extended past 18 games at any point during the tournament. Haddad Maia was a bit of a tough matchup for Swiatek because the Brazilian left-hander is a huge hitter of the ball and Swiatek can be somewhat vulnerable when time is taken away from her. Muchova should be a more favorable matchup for the top seed. Muchova’s success is generated by spins, slices and overall craftiness. The Czech is not going to hit her opponent off the court with power.
Muchova has done extremely well with her style of play to make an improbable run to the final, but I don’t think her game will work against Swiatek. It should also be noted that Swiatek has already won 3 Grand Slam titles and Muchova is playing in her first slam final. This is an unprecedented stage for the 26-year-old.
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Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova Under 3.5 aces (-110)
Obviously this correlates nicely with the first play, as a shorter match means fewer chances for aces. If it does last only 2 sets, we should be in good shape. Swiatek is averaging fewer than 2 aces per match so far during this event (10 through 6 rounds). Muchova has 6 aces in total.
It’s also important to know how frequently each player is getting aced. Muchova watched 5 whizz past her against Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-finals, but Sabalenka is the biggest server in the women’s game and that match was an extremely long 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 7-5 thriller. The world #43 had previously been aced 2, 0, 0, 1 and 0 times. Swiatek has gotten aced a grand total of 4 times in 6 matches. Both women are content to return from well behind the baseline and just get serves back in play.
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