Ricky Dimon
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The French Open semifinals are upon us, wrapping up with the men on Friday after the women headlined the proceedings on Thursday. It’s all about Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz, but also don’t forget about a mega showdown between Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud. I went 2-0 with my picks on the women’s semifinal action, so here’s hoping we can do it again here! Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on Day 13 at Roland Garros.
Jannik Sinner +1.5 sets over Carlos Alcaraz (-135)
Once Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal (along with Roger Federer) are fully gone, the post-Big 3 era of men’s tennis figures to be headlined by this Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz rivalry. It is already the most entertaining on tour – and Alcaraz is just 21 years old while Sinner is 22. It’s all tied up at 4-4; Alcaraz won their most recent encounter on the hard courts of Indian Wells earlier this spring, but Sinner has won 2 of their last 3.
The bottom line is that Sinner has been the best player in the world dating back to last fall, and the rankings will reflect as much on Monday when he becomes #1 in the world for the first time. The 22-year-old is 33-2 this season and 53-4 in his last 57 matches. During this stretch, he has won 5 tournaments (including the Australian Open) and is 15-2 against top-10 opponents. Alcaraz is obviously playing great, also, but at worst for Sinner this should be another 5-set thriller (like they played at the 2022 U.S. Open, won by the Spaniard). Sinner +1.5 sets is a great play, and I would also take him on the money line at +140 odds.
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Casper Ruud ML over Alexander Zverev (+115)
The pressure in this matchup is all on Alexander Zverev. He was one of the title favorites heading into this relatively wide-open event and he is the favorite on Friday against Casper Ruud – albeit a slight one. Moreover, the German is 0-3 in his 3 French Open semifinal appearances (all in the last 3 years) and is 0-5 in his last 5 Grand Slam semifinals overall. Ruud, on the other hand, is 2-0 in Roland Garros semis in the past 2 seasons.
It was Zverev whom the 2-time French Open runner-up crushed in last year’s semi (6-3, 6-4, 6-0). Ruud has now won 2 in a row in the head-to-head series and the beatdown 12 months ago is going to be a tough mental block to overcome for Zverev. As if that isn’t enough, this could also be a physical struggle. The world #4 has played 13 sets in the last 3 rounds, whereas Ruud got a walkover from Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals and therefore has not played since Monday. It’s safe to say that the 7th-ranked Norwegian is almost completely well-rested. He has enticing value as an underdog.
