Ricky Dimon
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It’s men’s semifinal day at the French Open on Friday. Get your popcorn ready for what is arguably the most highly anticipated match of the year – even though it isn’t a final. Chances are good that whoever wins the showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will go on to take the title, so the stakes could hardly be higher. Meanwhile, the other matchup features Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for Day 13 at Roland Garros.
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Casper Ruud over Alexander Zverev (+102)
It’s hard to see why Alexander Zverev is the favorite in this matchup, but I’m not complaining because getting Casper Ruud at plus-money represents outstanding value. Ruud hasn’t had the best year, but he is unsurprisingly heating up during his favorite part of the season on clay. The Norwegian reached the Rome semifinals and now he is one win away from a return trip to the French Open final.
Ruud is coming off a 4-set win over Holger Rune, who was the third favorite to capture the title. Meanwhile, Zverev has faced only 2 seeded opponents this fortnight and none higher than #12 Frances Tiafoe. Most concerning is that the German’s service yips are back. He has double-faulted at least 7 times in 4 of his 5 matches, including a ridiculous 10 against Tiafoe. You can’t think he will suddenly improve in that department now that the pressure increases in the semis and with his toughest opponent of the week on the other side of the net.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic over 38.5 games (-110)
I think Carlos Alcaraz is going to win this match, but there isn’t any value on him as a considerable favorite. Instead, the best play to make is on the game total.
This is the most highly anticipated matchup of the entire year in professional tennis, and it probably won’t disappoint. It’s a 22-time Grand Slam champion (Djokovic) facing the current best player on tour (Alcaraz is #1 in the world and boasts a 35-3 record in 2023). Djokovic has lost his serve only 3 times in the last 2 matches combined, while Alcaraz hasn’t been broken more than twice in any match so far at Roland Garros. As such, no single set is likely to be lopsided, so a 4-setter should take this over 38.5 and a 5-setter would obviously be a lock. It’s almost impossible to see this being a quick match in either player’s favor.
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