Ricky Dimon
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The French Open semifinals are upon us, starting with the women’s singles on Thursday before the men take center stage on Friday. It all begins with a highly anticipated showdown between Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. A much more surprising matchup will take place in the bottom half of the draw between Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on Day 12 at Roland Garros.
Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff Under 7.5 service breaks (-120)
Aside from her second-round thriller against Naomi Osaka, the way to play Iga Swiatek matches has been on her game spread. After all, she has been absolutely crushing opponents (other than Osaka). No other match has been more competitive than 6-4, 6-2 and the world #1 has lost a grand total of 4 games in her last 5 sets.
Although I expect Swiatek to cover -5.5, an even better bet is probably Under 7.5 service breaks. If the top-seeded Pole wins quickly, it is unlikely that there are enough games played for the breaks to go over. If Coco Gauff turns this into a long match, that means Swiatek probably isn’t breaking serve enough to hit the over. Moreover, let’s do some math. In 11 previous meetings (10 won by Swiatek), there have been 61 breaks — or 5.5 per match. In 10 combined matches at this French Open, Swiatek and Gauff have been broken 15 times (1.5 per match) while breaking 48 times (4.8 per match) for a total of 63 breaks (6.3 per match). All signs point to under 7.5 service breaks being a winner.
Jasmine Paolini ML over Mirra Andreeva (+120)
Jasmine Paolini has been great this season. She reached the 4th round of the Australian Open, won a 1000-point title in Dubai, now finds herself in a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time in her career and will be in the top 10 next week — also for the first time. Mirra Andreeva just beat the Italian 7-6(2), 6-4 on clay a few weeks ago in Madrid, but Roland Garros features much slower, more traditional clay-court conditions. That should favor Paolini, who is certainly at her best on clay (200 of her 367 professional match victories have come on this surface).
This is a new stage for both of them, but I would give the mental edge to a 28-year-old as opposed to a 17-year-old. Paolini might have the physical edge, too, as both women are coming off tough 3-set matches without a day off in between rounds.
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