Ricky Dimon
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The French Open quarterfinals will conclude on Wednesday, but there has already been tons of drama after Novak Djokovic was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to injury. That means Casper Ruud gets the walkover and has advanced to the semis. Still on the docket for Day 11 is Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur on the men’s singles side, while on the women’s singles side we have Mirra Andreeva vs Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini vs Elena Rybakina. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on Day 11 at Roland Garros.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva Under 20.5 games (-115)
For multiple reasons, it’s hard to see this match being competitive. First, they have faced each other twice before and neither previous game was close. Both came on the clay courts of Madrid, where Aryna Sabalenka rolled 6-3, 6-1 last spring and 6-1, 6-4 just a few weeks ago. Second, Sabalenka is playing incredibly well. The world #2 is 14-2 in her last 16 matches and her only 2 losses during this streak have come to world #1 Iga Swiatek — including 1 in a third-set tiebreaker during which Sabalenka had multiple championship points to capture the Rome title. Finally, Mirra Andreeva is just 17 years old and playing in her first major quarterfinal. That kind of stage is tough for anyone, much less a teenager. I expect Sabalenka to win with ease.
Jasmine Paolini +5.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-142)
If you’re on Jasmine Paolini, hopefully you got on it right when the lines were released because — unsurprisingly — they have moved in the Italian’s favor. And why not? She has been awesome this season, including the biggest title of her career (1,000 ranking points) on the hard courts of Dubai. Paolini is even better on clay, and if she wins on Wednesday it will mark her 200th professional match victory on this surface. The world #15 needed 3 sets in each of her last 2 matches, but the sets she won were by scores of 6-1, 6-0, 6-0 and 6-1.
Elena Rybakina is also playing great this spring, but she would much rather face Paolini on a faster surface than clay. The Kazakh leads the head-to-head series by a competitive 2-1 margin and needed 3 tight sets to win in Stuttgart less than 2 months ago — and quick conditions in Stuttgart are much better for Rybakina than those of Roland Garros. I think Paolini can even win this one outright.
Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur Over 37.5 games (-105)
Although Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head series 7-2, it’s really not that lopsided – and especially hasn’t been of late. Of their last 5 encounters, De Minaur has won 2 and just once has Zverev won in straight sets. It’s 1-1 so far this year. Moreover, De Minaur is playing great right now. The Australian is 29-10 for his 2024 campaign and has climbed to 11th in the rankings. His last 2 victories in this event came in 4 sets against recent Munich champion Jan-Lennard Struff and world #5 Daniil Medvedev. Moreover, Zverev is coming off consecutive 5-set marathons against Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune. This has all the makings of yet another grueling match for the German. He may win, but it’s never easy against the Demon.
