Ricky Dimon
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We have reached the business end of the French Open, as quarterfinal competition will get underway on Tuesday. Jannik Sinner is hoping to reach the semis of the French Open for the first time in his career, although he obviously has much bigger things on his mind than the semis. Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are also taking the court. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on Day 10 at Roland Garros.
Grigor Dimitrov Under 16.5 games won vs Jannik Sinner (-115)
Sinner was a question mark heading into this fortnight, but he has cleared up any doubts about his hip injury. The world #2 and reigning Australian Open champion has lost just 1 set through 4 rounds. He responded to his lone dropped set (the opener against Corentin Moutet on Sunday night) by taking the next 3 in succession via 6-3, 6-2 and 6-1 scorelines. Sinner recently faced Grigor Dimitrov in the Miami Open final and dominated 6-3, 6-1. The Italian has defeated Dimitrov 3 times in a row while winning 6 of 7 sets in the process. Expect another rout.
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Iga Swiatek -6.5 games over Marketa Vondrousova (-120)
If you haven’t seen enough from Swiatek at this point in the event to be convinced by her dominance, you haven’t been watching. It is true that she was seriously tested by Naomi Osaka (saved 1 match point in a 3-set thriller), but it has otherwise been beatdown city for the top seed. In fact, she dropped just 10 total points during a 6-0, 6-0 humiliation of Anastasia Potapova on Sunday. It’s also worth noting that Osaka’s performance wasn’t a huge surprise since she is the kind of power player who can give Swiatek problems. Vondrousova most definitely isn’t.
The Czech left-hander isn’t going to win a lot of free points with big serves or first-strike groundstrokes. She is 0-3 lifetime against Swiatek and has lost a set either 6-0 or 6-1 in every single one of their matches. Their only previous clay-court encounter came 4 years ago at Roland-Garros and Swiatek cruised 6-1, 6-2. More of the same should be in the cards.
Stefanos Tsitsipas Under 16.5 games won vs Carlos Alcaraz (-115)
Similar to the Sinner vs Dimitrov story, I don’t see Stefanos Tsitsipas taking a set off of Carlos Alcaraz; even if the Greek does, he could still stay under 16.5. After all, he is 0-5 lifetime in the head-to-head series, has lost 10 of their last 11 total sets and in last year’s straight-set result in the French Open quarters, he dropped 2 of the sets 6-2 and 6-1. Their other clay-court contest in 2023 resulted in a 6-3, 6-4 victory for Alcaraz at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
Since they met in Paris last spring, Alcaraz has become a Wimbledon champion while Tsitsipas has plunged to #9 in the rankings. The underdog has been solid but unspectacular both this spring as a whole and during this French Open. Unless he raises his level significantly, he can be expected to take another ‘L’ at the hands of an opponent who owns him.
