Ricky Dimon
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There could be a different vibe at the French Open this year, as 14-time champion Rafael Nadal is unable to play due to injury. That opens the door in the men’s draw, while #1 seed Iga Swiatek is a heavy favorite to win the women’s title but could be dealing with injury issues of her own.
The season’s second Grand Slam gets started on Sunday, when Stefanos Tsitsipas and Aryna Sabalenka are among those taking the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 1 schedule, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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Mackenzie McDonald +4.5 games over Sebastian Korda (-115)
Korda is favored because he is ranked higher, is seeded 24th and has enjoyed French Open success in the past. However, that hardly compensates for the fact that the 22-year-old American is a shadow of his real self right now. Korda missed 3 months following the Australian Open due to a wrist injury and he did not win a single match at his 2 clay-court tournaments in advance of Roland Garros. That’s right; Korda has not won a match since the Australian Open. McDonald isn’t playing great, either, but he has reached at least the second round in 3 consecutive trips to the French Open – including the third round last season. The 28-year-old really should be the favorite here, so I will happily back a +4.5 game spread for some insurance.
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Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego Over 37.5 games (-120)
Shelton and Sonego have gone head-to-head once in their careers and Shelton prevailed 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-5 at least year’s Cincinnati Masters. Yes, they played 34 total games even though it was a best-of-3 situation as opposed to best-of-5 – which is obviously the format at Roland Garros. Even on clay, both of these guys are hard to break; they have big serves and are generally huge hitters of the ball. Shelton is ranked higher and is seeded #30, but the clay-court surface levels the playing field for Sonego and probably even tips the scales in the Italian’s favor. It’s hard to see this being a lopsided result either way. Expect a long one, to the extent that I would play this up to 39.5 or even 40.
Parlay: Irina-Camelia Begu ML over Anna Bondar and Alexander Shevchenko ML over Oscar Otte (-108)
More than half of Begu’s 404 career match victories have come on clay. The veteran Romanian is playing well and faces an opponent who is just 10-13 this season. Meanwhile, Shevchenko has been the ATP’s breakout star of the current clay-court swing. The 22-year-old has won 158 matches on this surface in his young career; he has won 52 on all other surfaces combined. He is coming off back-to-back third-round performances in Madrid and Rome, whereas Otte is a horrendous 6-14 overall in 2023 and is more effective on faster surfaces.
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