Ricky Dimon
It is men’s semifinal day at the French Open on Friday, and what a lineup it is. Lorenzo Musetti is the underdog of the lot, but he has been in incredible form during the clay-court season and really has been among the best players in the world dating all the way back to last summer. The Italian is a worthy semifinalist. He is joined in the last 4 by world #1 Jannik Sinner, world #2 Carlos Alcaraz and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. With what is sure to be an amazing day of tennis on tap, let’s take a look at my French Open best bets on the Day 13 schedule.
Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Under 8.5 service breaks (-125)
Sinner has been broken just twice in 5 matches at this French Open. The top seed has held an amazing 62 of 64 service games, holding serve at a dominant 97 percent rate. It is true that Djokovic may be the best returner in tennis history, but at 38 years old, it is no secret that he is past his prime. Look no further than his recent efforts against Sinner. The Serb hasn’t broken the Italian in their last 7 head-to-head sets and he hasn’t generated a single break point in their last 6.
The bottom line is that if this turns out to be a long match, it probably means Djokovic is doing a good job of holding his own serve — not because he is breaking Sinner. If it’s a short match (which is expected given how big of a favorite Sinner is), there probably won’t be enough time for the reigning US Open and Australian Open champion to break a bunch of times. Meanwhile, Djokovic is holding at a 92 percent clip so far at Roland Garros (67 of 73 service games held). In 8 H2H contests between these 2 champions, there have been just 36 breaks in 24 sets.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Over 33.5 games (-115)
Before the French Open began, I had Musetti in the title match (beating Alcaraz in the semis). It’s hard not to waffle now given how good the Spaniard has looked, but I still think Musetti will at least be competitive. The world #7 is in amazing form. He reached the Monte-Carlo final (lost to Alcaraz in 3 sets) and also advanced to the semifinals at Masters 1000 tournaments in Madrid and Rome. His Rome run was ended by Alcaraz, but it was a competitive 6-3, 7-6 contest. Musetti has been awesome so far this fortnight, so another relatively close affair is likely in the cards.
Moreover, it’s not like Alcaraz is invincible; the 2nd seed has more lulls in most matches than Sinner, for example. He dropped a set to Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton earlier in this event. It isn’t out of the question that Musetti takes a set or 2 from Alcaraz, and if this one goes 4 sets or more, we should easily see more than 33 games played.
