Ricky Dimon
And just like that, we have arrived at the business end of the 2025 French Open. The quarterfinals are already set, so spots in the semis will start being handed out on Tuesday, June 3. Among those taking the court today are Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. Let’s take a look at my French Open best bets on the Day 10 schedule, as I look to build on my 9-5 run over the past 5 days!
French Open Parlay: Iga Swiatek ML over Elina Svitolina and Aryna Sabalenka ML over Qinwen Zheng (-115)
Swiatek and Sabalenka remain on a semifinal collision course for what is a highly anticipated head-to-head showdown at Roland Garros. Both should be able to make it happen. Swiatek is a 4-time French Open champion and if there is a Queen of Clay, she’s it. The Pole’s lead is 3-1 in the head-to-head series with Elina Svitolina, including a straight-set victory in their only previous clay-court contest. Moreover, Svitolina is coming off a 3-set battle with Jasmine Paolini in which the Ukrainian saved 3 match points. You have to think that both mental and physical reserves will be running low.
French Open prediction: Tommy Paul +7.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-115)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul is actually a sneaky good rivalry. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of the Spaniard and it has been even more competitive than that record suggests. Paul took down Alcaraz in back-to-back Canada Masters 1000 tournaments in 2022 and 2023 to get the ball rolling. Although the underdog hasn’t been quite as successful since, Alcaraz has defeated Paul just twice in straight sets – and even those results were only 4-game margins.
Keep in mind, too, that Alcaraz has dropped a set in 3 of his 4 matches at Roland Garros (against Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton). Also of importance is that Paul is well rested on the heels of a convincing 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Alexei Popyrin, so he should have enough energy to once again make this matchup interesting.
French Open best bet: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe Under 8.5 service breaks (-135)
Frances Tiafoe has been broken a mere 4 times through 4 rounds at Roland Garros. Lorenzo Musetti has dropped serve on 9 occasions, giving him a stellar service hold percentage of 86 compared to his opponent’s amazing 93. In the head-to-head series, Musetti and Tiafoe have faced each other 7 times and there have been 42 service breaks in 18 total sets. That’s much closer to 2 per set than to 3, so even a 4-set match should stay under this number based on the averages.
Most importantly, I believe this match could be a quick one. Tiafoe is playing well, but Musetti appears to be on a different level. The 23-year-old Italian has been on fire dating back to Wimbledon (semifinals) last summer and he is up to #7 in the rankings. There’s a reason why he is a -500 favorite on the money line. The shorter the match, the less chance there is for service breaks.
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