Ricky Dimon
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Because both Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz are ranked outside the top 4 on the ATP Tour right now, they were always going to be at the mercy of the French Open draw. Sure enough, both Spaniards ended up in the same half of the bracket as world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. That means only 1 of the top 3 tournament favorites can reach the final. And either Djokovic or Nadal will be ousted no later than the quarterfinals, as that is where those two all-time greats would go head-to-head. The winner could face Alcaraz in the semis. Given the lopsidedness of the draw, the door could be open for contenders on the weaker side. Let’s break down what it all means.
Here are the odds to win the men’s singles French Open title and my best bets. Picks for the women’s tournament will come on Friday.
French Open odds
Here are the odds for the French Open men’s singles tournament, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Novak Djokovic +190
Carlos Alcaraz +200
Rafael Nadal +370
Stefanos Tsitsipas +500
Alexander Zverev +1800
Casper Ruud +2300
Jannik Sinner +4800
Felix Auger-Aliassime +4800
Daniil Medvedev +4800
Andrey Rublev +5500
Dominic Thiem +5500
3-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+500)
Tsitsipas made it all the way to the championship match at Roland Garros last spring and even came within a single set of lifting the trophy (Djokovic came back from two sets down to beat him). Don’t be surprised if he goes one step farther this time around for his first Grand Slam title. He is without question the best clay-court player on tour outside of Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. Well, all 3 of those guys are in the top half of the draw. Tsitipas has a great chance to reach the final and at that point he could meet one of the top 3 favorites coming off potentially brutal quarter and semi matches. Given the draw he has, there is value at +500.
2-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+4800)
Tsitsipas has a very good draw opposite Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. But I’m not willing to say he has the best draw since he has to meet Musetti in round one. The best one probably belongs to Sinner and Andrey Rublev. They are in the softest section of the bracket with No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev, who is uncomfortable on clay and has missed all but one tournament during the dirt season because of a hernia. Whoever wins the projected fourth-round showdown between Rublev and Sinner could go a long, long way – especially if it’s Sinner. The 20-year-old Italian reached the quarterfinals as an 18-year-old (lost to Nadal) and advanced to the fourth round last season (again lost to Nadal). He has never lost at Roland Garros to anyone not named Rafael Nadal. Sinner is sporting an incredible 24-6 match record for this 2022 campaign, so all signs point to huge success for him this coming fortnight.
1-star value play: Rafael Nadal (+370)
I am not overly high on Nadal’s chances this year, but I also can’t let a +370 opportunity slip entirely by the wayside. This is the first time since the Spaniard’s debut appearance in Paris 17 years ago (which he won) that you can get him at these kinds of odds. It’s true that Nadal’s preparation has not been ideal. He lost in both Madrid and Rome, plus his chronic foot injury popped up again. As mentioned many times already, he also has a bad draw. Still, this is a 13-time French Open champion we are talking about. Nadal is…wait for it…105-3 lifetime at the French Open. I can’t pass up +370 without making at least a small play.
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