Ricky Dimon
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The absolutely loaded top half of the men’s draw will be back in action at the French Open on Friday. That means Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz are all taking the court. On the women’s side, a bottom half of the bracket that is totally up for grabs makes its way into the third round.
I went 3-0 with my picks on Thursday, including a +118 parlay. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets to be made for Day 6.
Sebastian Korda +7 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-115)
Like pretty much everyone in the tennis world these days, I’m firmly on the Alcaraz bandwagon. That being said, I’m not about to pass up a +7 game spread with Korda – whose bandwagon I (yep, like pretty much everyone) am also riding. The American has not dropped a set through two rounds in Paris, whereas Alcaraz is coming off a shockingly competitive five-setter against fellow Spaniard Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Alcaraz was even down match point in one instance. Also, they just went head-to-head last month in Monte-Carlo and Korda won. I’m not saying another upset is in the cards, but a Korda outright victory is more likely than an Alcaraz rout. Give me the +7.
Grigor Dimitrov ML over Diego Schwartzman (-157)
You have to like Dimitrov’s chances in the French Open third round on Friday. One, he just erased Schwartzman 6-0, 6-3 in Madrid earlier this month. Two, he has been in superior form through this clay-court swing (his results include a semifinal run in Monte-Carlo and a third-round appearance in Madrid, plus three of his losses have come to Stefanos Tsitsipas). Three, the Bulgarian has been much more convincing so far in Paris. He has lost 10 total games through two matches; Schwartzman went to four sets in round one and five in round two. The Argentine has been flirting with an early exit from Paris and it will probably come on Friday.
Parlay: John Isner ML over Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Amanda Anisimova over Karolina Muchova (+127)
Isner is the essence of a momentum player. When he doesn’t have any, he can stay in a prolonged funk. But when he has some, he can get super hot. Two wins so far in Paris should be enough to get the 6’10” American on a roll – especially since he did not need five sets on either occasion. Five-setters have been Isner’s Waterloo throughout his career, because even he has won them they have left him sapped off energy for the next match. There is now such issue now, and the former University of Georgia standout has a very favorable third-round draw against Zapata Miralles. The Spaniard is ranked No. 131 in the world and he had won only a single Grand Slam match prior to this fortnight (at the 2021 U.S. Open). Zapata Miralles’ serve is a liability, which generally spells disaster against Isner since getting broken just once more often than not means the set is over.
We will cap off this two-leg parlay with another American. Anisimova reached the semifinals at Roland Garros in 2019 and with Iga Swiatek on the other side of the draw there is no reason why the 20-year-old can’t go all the way to the final this time around – and maybe even win it? Anisimova did not drop a set in either of her first two matches against tough opponents in Naomi Osaka and Donna Vekic. Muchova did well to upset Maria Sakkari on Wednesday, but the Czech has been hurt for most of this season and it’s hard to see her stringing together a pair of great performances back-to-back.
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