Ricky Dimon
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It’s women’s semifinals day at the French Open. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek will be looking for a spot in the title match as she continues her bid for a second winner’s trophy at Roland Garros. Standing in Swiatek’s way is Daria Kasatkina, while Thursday’s second semifinal pits Coco Gauff against Martina Trevisan.
I needed a big betting day and that’s exactly what I got in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, going 3-0 – including two picks at plus money! Let’s keep the momentum rolling as we take a look at some of the best bets to be made for Day 12!
Daria Kasatkina +6.5 games over Iga Swiatek (-130)
It’s not exactly fun betting against Swiatek these days, but we are down to the semifinals and it’s not like there are a whole lot of options. Getting 6.5 games with her opponent makes the proposition somewhat more appealing. Obviously, Kasatkina doesn’t have to win the match for this bet to cash. Heck, she really doesn’t have to be all that competitive. Even a 6-3, 6-3 loss would get the job done.
As dominant as Swiatek is (she has won 33 matches in a row!), Kasatkina is playing too well, herself, to fade her on this game spread. The world No. 20 has not dropped a single set at this French Open and eight of her 10 sets have been no more competitive than 6-3. Kasatkina is 12-3 on clay in 2022 and two of her three losses have come to Ons Jabeur, one of the best clay-court players in the world right now (and the Russian’s loss to Jabeur in the Rome semis was a 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 thriller).
No, I’m not fading Swiatek here; I’m simply backing Kasatkina.
Coco Gauff vs Martina Trevisan Under 20.5 games (-110)
I’m not at all concerned by Trevisan’s victory over Gauff at the 2020 French Open. It was a close three-setter, it came when the American was only 16 years old, and it was played in the fall amidst slow conditions that were not ideal for Gauff’s hard-hitting game. Now the teenager has two more seasons of experience under her belt and conditions are more favorable for her in the spring. She’s certainly playing like it. Gauff did not surrender a set en route to the semis and was pushed to a tiebreaker just once. Trevisan, on the other hand, is coming off very tough matches in the fourth round and quarterfinals. I really think Gauff – ranked 36 spots higher than her opponent – has a good chance to win this one quickly.
Of course, going with the under may be safer than the game spread because it gives us another outlet in the form of a comfortable win for Trevisan. That isn’t likely, but we can’t forget that Gauff is still only 18 years old. If nerves finally get to her on this stage, a veteran like Trevisan may be able to take advantage.
Whatever the case, take the under – and hopefully for the sake of my Gauff +2000 outright futures bet it’s an under in her favor!
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