Matthew Lowrimore
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Wimbledon: Rafael Nadal -2.5 sets (-450) over Francisco Cerundolo, 10:00 am ET
When healthy, Rafael Nadal has been the dominant player on the ATP Tour in 2022. He has won each of the first two majors and his overall record stands a 30-3. The 36-year-old Spaniard has been healthy since the start of the French Open and by all accounts he still is heading into Wimbledon. That is bad news for Francisco Cerundolo, who much prefers playing on clay—like…even more than Nadal does!
Be sure to check out all of our best bets for Wimbledon Day 2.
MLB: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies – Over 8 runs (+100), 7:05 pm ET
This total is surprisingly low, even with Zack Wheeler on the mound. However, 4 of his last 6 starts have finished with at least 9 runs, including a previous start against the Braves. The Phillies won that game 7-3 and they have become the most profitable team for overs this season since then.
The absence of Bryce Harper could also be a factor, but Kyle Schwarber and company are more than capable of hitting Charlie Morton. They’ve already done so earlier this season in a game that ended with 12 total runs. With both teams having Monday off, expect some fresh bats to produce a high-scoring game on Tuesday.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+105) over Washington Nationals, 7:05 pm ET
I simply have no interest in backing Patrick Corbin. His 6.60 ERA and a 6.45 xERA are absurdly poor, and his batted ball profile paints an even worse picture. Corbin ranks among the bottom 11% of qualified pitchers in avg. exit velocity allowed, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xERA and barrel rate.
Pittsburgh is also not a team worth backing offensively, but the addition of top prospect O’Neil Cruz could be the difference. All in all, I think the Pirates provide a lot of upside here as underdogs facing the most fade-able pitcher in baseball.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals
MLB: Houston Astros ML (-120) over New York Mets, 7:10 pm ET
Tuesday’s contest will feature a pitching rematch from just last Wednesday when Luis Garcia and Carlos Carrasco take the mound. While Garcia gave the Astros a solid outing, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits across 5.0 innings, Carrasco put the Mets in an early hole they were unable to dig their way out of. Carrasco got touched up for 5 runs on 3 HR’s and was yanked in the 3rd inning. Carrasco’s ERA has now ballooned to 5.33 across 5 starts in June and 4.42 on the year.
Overall, Garcia has been the more consistent and reliable arm for his team and had a solid outing his last time out against the Mets. The off-day Monday benefits both bullpens, but the Astros have the best bullpen in baseball, with a 2.75 ERA. The Astros hold an edge in starting pitching and their bullpen and should be able to leave Citi Field with a win.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Astros vs New York Mets
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