Matthew Lowrimore
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One pick is taken from each sport and a winning ticket gives us a nice payout with odds at +961 with DraftKings; that’s more than 9/1! Let’s break down each of these plays.
College Basketball: Butler Bulldogs vs Villanova Wildcats – Over 123.5 points (-115), 12:00 pm ET
Villanova is 5-0 at home this season and winning by an average margin of 27.0 ppg, while scoring 83.6 ppg which is 16.1 more points than they average on the road. On top of that, Butler is allowing 72.0 ppg in their last 3 games which is 8.4 more points than they have overall this season. Lastly, as average as the Bulldogs have been on offense, they are averaging 72.7 ppg in their last 3 meetings against Villanova and each of the last 12 meetings between these two teams dating back to 2016 would surpass today’s total. Take the over in today’s Big East match-up.
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NBA: Phoenix Suns -11.5 (-110) vs Detroit Pistons, 1:10 pm ET
The Suns travel to Detroit as they look to maintain the best record in the NBA, currently sitting at 32-9. On the other hand, the Detroit Pistons do not have a good record; they are 10-31, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA. Yet over the last five games, they are 3-2 ,winning their last one over the Toronto Raptors 103-87. The Pistons are 20-21 ATS this season and 11-9 ATS when they are the home team. The Suns are 22-19 ATS this season and 11-8 ATS when they are the road team. The Suns are so sound that I believe they will just roll into Detroit and take care of business.
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NHL: Vancouver Canucks vs Washington Capitals ML (-180), 2:00 pm ET
Washington is winless in their last 4 games. Of those losses, 2 were bad losses and 2 extended beyond regulation. It’s hard to see a team like Washington staying in a slump much longer than a week. The Caps have the NHL’s 8th best goals scored per game average, 11th best goals against per game average, and a 10-4-5 home record. Vancouver is 8-10-2 on the road and hasn’t found much consistency yet since returning to play. The Canucks have also been outscored 14-12 in their past 5 games. Ultimately, Washington is itching to break out of a slump, and I believe they will look to do so against a lowly Canucks team still trying to find an identity in the middle of a tough road trip.
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NFL: San Francisco 49ers +3 (-105) vs Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 pm ET
Since Week 9, the 49ers led the league in net yards per play and have a potent passing offense, with 13% of dropbacks resulting in an explosive play. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense is trending in the wrong direction. Over the first 9 weeks of the season they were 5th in EPA/play, but that has dipped to 9th since Week 10. More specifically, the rushing offense has really taken a dip, dropping from 7th to 26th in rush success rate.
The 49ers defense, which is 1st in EPA/play against the run since Week 9, should be able to control the tempo of this game, allowing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and a dangerous cast of 49ers weapons to take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is 28th in the NFL in opponent yards per play since Week 9. I would also be willing to sprinkle San Francisco on the money line, as they could well leave Jerry’s World with a win.
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