Matt Selz
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It’s time to get dirty! Not only with our bets for this week’s Food City Dirt Race, but also the racing on track. Bristol Motor Speedway is the host venue for this week’s race but it’s not the normal Bristol half-mile. It’s covered in dirt. For the second year in a row, the Spring Bristol race has been converted to a dirt race to harken back to the sport’s roots. Dirt racing has been a key grassroots form of racing since before the start of NASCAR.
Food City Dirt Race Betting Strategy
This is a race unlike any other. Well almost. They did race this race last year, though with different cars and a different setup. This weekend they’ve adjusted the track for slightly different banking and hopefully less dust. Last year, we saw the cars that were good at the long run speeds in practice did well in the race. The three drivers that led the most laps all had top-10 10-lap and 15-lap averages in the practice sessions. Part of last year’s race though has to be taken with a grain of salt because there were single-file restarts. That drastically reduced the passing that happened in the last third of the race.
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Prop Picks will be added following qualifying on Saturday evening.
Bristol Dirt Winner Bets
Christopher Bell +800
It’s Bell and dirt. They go together like Peanut Butter and Jelly — or at least that’s what we’ve all thought. His pedigree on this surface is unquestioned, though it didn’t help him to a strong finish last year. That being said, why he’s here and Kyle Larson isn’t, is because he had a very good run going before getting caught up in an incident last year. He put up 21 fastest laps, of the 54 he was on the track for, and moved up well in that time. Assuming he stays on the track the whole time this year, he’s a serious threat to win.
Joey Logano +900
He won the Food City Dirt Race last year. That’s the argument. He’s also been good at these unique races over the last couple of years as well having won this race and the one-off Clash at the L.A. Coliseum earlier this year. Logano was fast throughout the race last year and in practice. While the speed was legit, he did get a benefit of being in the lead for single-file restarts over the last third of the race. If the same speed is in the 22-car again, he should be up front when it matters on Sunday night.
Tyler Reddick +1400
Wanna hear something impressive? Reddick started P27 and finished P7 all while only posting one single solitary fastest lap. It wasn’t even due to pit strategy either. Mid-race he was P11 just based on his ability to move through traffic. That’s evidenced by him ranking seventh in the field in Quality Passes — passing cars in the top-15 under Green Flag conditions. Now that there’s progressive banking on the track this year, that only helps Reddick’s driving style.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2500
Does everyone forget that Stenhouse came up through the Mississippi dirt racing scene? I mean really, why is he this much of a long shot? Last year he came into this race struggling to find speed on the season and that’s the same this year. Yet it didn’t matter. He finished P2 after starting P13 and had 11 fastest laps. Stenhouse also led the field in Quality Passes with 39. If he qualifies close to the front these odds will only get shorter.
Austin Dillon +4000
Dillon isn’t known for his dirt racing prowess. He’s also not known for consistent speed. So why is he being included in this betting piece? A couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s running the Truck Series race on Saturday night to get more time on track and we saw that pay off for drivers last year. Secondly, he had very good speed at Martinsville last weekend and finished P2. If he can put his additional track time and momentum to good use, it could be a surprising Sunday night for Dillon and the 3-car team.
Food City Dirt Race Prop Bets
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +110
Yeah, yeah. Wallace is only a so-so driver. Sure that’s the case most weeks but there are weeks where he’s worth betting on. This is one of those weeks. If we look at his results last year, it’s not great but that’s not the whole story. He was running inside the top-10 much of the race before a flat tire at the wrong time trapped him laps down and back in the field. Wallace and the 23-car team have been able to move up solidly at short tracks this year and Sunday at Bristol could be another solid night.
Favorite: Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +140
Jones has been on a run of late. He’s had quite a bit of speed in the 43-car over the last handful of weeks and should have a few more top-10s this year than he does. Jones finished top-10 in the Food City Dirt Race last year all while only posting five fastest laps and being mid-pack in Quality Passes. One last thing, he finished in the top-10 last year while starting P24 — so he can clearly move up through the field.
More picks will be added Saturday evening when the field is set.
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