Sam Avellone
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After winning just 2 conference games for the first time since 1986, Dan Mullen was relieved of his duties as the Gators’ head coach. Mullen was 36-15 in his 4 seasons in Gainesville, but was just 2-9 in his last 11 games against Power 5 opponents. Florida hired Billy Napier from University of Louisiana at Lafayette to replace Mullen after Napier accumulated a 40-12 record over 4 years while leading the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Can Napier lead the Gators back to prominence? With the season just a couple weeks away, let’s analyze the Florida Gators.
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Florida Gators 2022 college football season odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Florida National Championship odds
The Gators are currently listed at 90/1 to win the National Championship. They are 1 of 17 teams with odds under 100/1.
Florida Gators SEC Championship odds
Florida is listed at 45/1 to win the SEC, behind just Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
Florida Gators SEC East odds
With odds of +1000, the Gators are the second-favorite to win the SEC East. They sit behind Georgia, who is a -550 favorite to win the division.
Florida Gators 2021 season recap
The Gators started the season just fine, as they beat Florida Atlantic and South Florida by 20+ points each. In Week 3, they gave Alabama everything it could handle but eventually lost 31-29. Florida then beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt over the next 3 weeks with a loss to Kentucky sandwiched in-between. Then, the season started to go downhill, as the Gators lost the next 4 games against Power 5 opponents (LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri). Florida even struggled with Samford, allowing the Bulldogs to score over 50 points in a 70-52 Florida win at the Swamp. After the 24-23 overtime loss to Missouri, Mullen was fired and assistant coach Greg Knox took over as interim head coach. After a loss to UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl, the Gators finished the season 6-7, which was their first losing season since 2017 and their second since 2013.
Dual-threat quarterback Emory Jones led the Gator offense with 2,734 passing yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with a team-leading 759 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns, but he threw 13 interceptions and was often scrambling behind a poor offensive line. Running back Dameon Pierce was Jones’ primary backfield partner who accumulated 790 total yards and 16 total touchdowns, while Jacob Copeland and Justin Shorter were the primary Gator pass-catchers who each caught 41 passes and combined for 1,192 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Gators ranked 61st in points per game and will look to Coach Napier for improvement on this side of the ball in 2022 and beyond. Florida struggled defensively as well, ranking outside the top 40 in opponent points per game and opponent first downs per game. The defensive unit was led by Mohamoud Diabate, who led the team in tackles, as well as Brenton Cox and Zachary Carter – both of whom combined for 26 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks.
Florida Gators 2022 college football season predictions
There are high hopes for Coach Napier heading into the 2022 season, but he will have to replace some key pieces on both sides of the ball. Jones transferred to Arizona State, leaving Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback for the Gators. Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback like Jones and was decent in the backup role last year. However, he will have to work on his accuracy as he completed just 59.4% of his 64 pass attempts while throwing 5 interceptions to just 6 touchdowns. Montrell Johnson Jr followed Napier to Gainesville and will compete with Nay’Quan Wright to replace Pierce at running back, who is now with the Houston Texans. Shorter returns and will lead an underwhelming group of pass catchers, while the offensive line returns 3 starters and adds O’Cyrus Torrence – who also followed Napier to Florida. Overall, the Gators return just 13 of the team’s 53 touchdowns from last season and will have an offense that is largely unproven at the FBS level. Defensively, the Gators bring back 5 of their 10 leading tacklers including Trey Dean III and Rashad Torrence, as well as Cox – who will push for double-digit sacks. Unfortunately for the Gators, Diabate and Carter are no longer with the program as Diabate transferred to Utah and Carter went to the NFL. The Florida defense made improvements in 2021 after a poor 2020 season and will look to make yet another improvement in 2022 under Napier and his staff.
Who could be this season’s Cincinnati? Read our non-Power 5 conference dark horses
Best Bet: Florida Gators under 7 regular season wins (+105)
The Florida schedule is difficult and will test the new coaching staff early and often. The Gators welcome the Utah Utes, who are ranked 7th in the AP Preseason Poll, to the Swamp in Week 1 before hosting 20th-ranked Kentucky in Week 2. They will also have two pairs of back-to-back road games later in the season when they play at defending-champion Georgia followed by at Texas A&M before ending the season at Vanderbilt and at in-state rival Florida State. Furthermore, the Gators will host Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina at home during conference play – three teams the Gators lost to last season. With a new coach incorporating a new quarterback, I expect the Gators to start 0-2 after losses to Utah and Kentucky at home. Games at Georgia and at Texas A&M will likely result in losses as well, which would mean the Gators have to win every other game on the regular season schedule to go over 7 wins. Simply put, I just do not see that happening. Napier has the tools to be successful in Gainesville, but it will take some time to build the program back up to the elite tier in which it previously resided.
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