Caleb Wilfinger
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The Final Four is finally here – and it’s not 4 that anyone could have expected. As a #4 seed, UConn is the highest-seeded team remaining. The Huskies will go up against 5th-seeded Miami in Saturday’s nightcap, but before we get there we’ll have an even more improbable matchup that pits San Diego State against 9th-seeded Florida Atlantic.
Below is my SGP for Saturday’s first national semifinal game, and also be sure to check out all of our NCAAB picks.
Florida Atlantic win margin 1-10 (+235)
Under 132 (-106)
Parlay odds: +512
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Florida Atlantic win margin 1-10 (+235)
San Diego State has gotten to this point on the strength of its outstanding defense, but I don’t forsee the Aztecs having the same level of success in this matchup. Florida Atlantic sits at 24th in offensive efficiency at KenPom and the Owls consistent success in the half court should translate to this game. FAU has still shown the ability to run their offense in the half court throughout the NCAA Tournament, even against elite athletes (Memphis) and top 5 defenses (Tennessee).
The FAU offense is a 4-out, 1-in offense that uses center Vlad Goldin surrounded by 4 shooters — which allows them to beat their opponents in a multitude of ways. San Diego State’s defense is very similar to Tennessee’s in that it’s based on physicality and protecting the rim, but the Aztecs can be had from behind the arc. Teams are only shooting 17% from the 3-point arc against San Diego State this tournament, so it’s very likely we see some regression happen in that regard. This one should be a close game throughout the contest, so I see plenty of value in backing the Owls to win by 1-10 points and advancing to the National Championship.
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Under 132 (-106)
Even more than backing a side for this contest, I absolutely love the under at the current number. I have little doubts that San Diego State will try to play the game at its pace, which means we’ll see a very low possession count and lots of shots that come late in the shot clock. Both teams are great at preventing their opponents from playing in transition, and it’s not like the Aztecs want to get out and run anyway. San Diego State is 266th in the nation in adjusted tempo and while the same can’t be said for Florida Atlantic, the Owls have been more than willing to play in the half court throughout this tournament.
There likely won’t be many easy baskets at the rim in this game, which should place an emphasis on jump-shooting for both teams. Given that I expect both squads to play a bit tight on college basketball’s biggest stage, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the winner of this matchup barely cracked 60 points.
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