Ian Wilkerson
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The 2022 soccer World Cup brings with it a host of betting opportunities and one of the most popular futures bets on the tournament is on the top goalscorer, who wins the Golden Boot award.
A bet in this market can provide entertainment for the whole tournament, but there are some crucial facts for bettors to know before diving in.
Here is a breakdown of the latest odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
2022 World Cup Golden Boot betting odds
Harry Kane (ENG) +750
Kylian Mbappe (FRA) +750
Lionel Messi (ARG) +1100
Neymar (BRA) +1200
Lautaro Martinez (ARG) +2000
Memphis Depay (NED) +2300
Romelu Lukaku (BEL) +2300
Cristiano Ronaldo (POR) +2300
Vinicius Junior (BRA) +2900
Olivier Giroud (FRA) +2900
Richarlison (BRA) +2900
Who wins the soccer World Cup Golden Boot award?
The Golden Boot award can cause confusion for novice bettors when more than one player finishes the tournament with the same number of goals.
When determining the official winner, the governing body takes into account the number of assists a player has made as a tiebreaker, and if two or more players are still level after that, the number of minutes a player was on the field will be considered.
FanDuel Sportsbook clearly states that it will grade bets according to the official winner of the award according to the tiebreakers, but others may just apply dead-heat rules if more than one player finishes with the most goals — be sure you know how your sportsbook will decide the winner to avoid disappointment!
See our full USA 2022 World Cup soccer predictions and analysis for how the USMNT will perform
What are the trends of soccer World Cup Golden Boot winners?
Looking at past tournaments, it is interesting to note that the Golden Boot winner has come from the winning nation on just 4 occasions since the first competition in 1930 — although there were 2 Brazilian players among the six who topped the goalcharts in 1962.
Ronaldo (the Brazilian star rather than the still active Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal) in 2002 is the only player to have scored more than 6 goals at a World Cup since 1974, so that’s the sort of target number a player will need to score to be in the hunt.
The further a player progresses in a competition then the more chances he will get to score, and while losing semifinalists also have one more potential game to play, star players can be rested for the releatively meaningless third-place playoff game.
Let’s get onto our best bet to win the the World Cup Golden Boost.
2022 World Cup Golden Boot best bet: Kylian Mbappe (+750)
England’s Harry Kane won the World Cup Golden Boot award in Russia 4 years ago with 6 goals and it was notable that 5 of those came against Tunisia and Panama, while 3 of his strikes were penalties — remember, only goals from penalties in games themselves count for this award — converting a kick in a shootout does not count.
Kane is +750 favourite to retain the trophy, but does not have great value this time as England has struggled for goals in preparation for this tournament.
Some of the giants of the world game – Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Lionel Messi feature highly in the market – but the smarter bet could be Kylian Mbappe of France. His teammate, Karim Benzema, was our original choice in this market, but a thigh injury has ruled outthe Real Madrid striker on the eve of the tournament.
Defending champions France have been handed a decent draw alongside Denmark, Australia and Tunisia in Group D and Mbappe could be a contender for the Golden Boot if France finds an early rhythm.
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2022 World Cup Golden Boot best longshot bet: Steven Bergwijn (+6500)
With host nation Qatar being handed a top group seeding, the Netherlands got the draw everyone wanted when placed with Qatar, Senegal and Ecuador in Group A.
The Dutch have been in great form under Louis van Gaal and Ajax forward Steven Bergwijn is a tempting longshot for the top goalscorer award.
EPL fans did not get to see the best of Bergwijn during his brief spell at Tottenham, but he has shined since joining the Dutch champions. Bergwijn has scored 6 goals in his last 9 international appearances and been a regular scorer in the Eredivisie and Champions League this season.
Get our 2022 World Cup winner picks, including a +5000 longshot!
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