Matt Selz
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The F1 paddock has been a buzz this week as they head to Austin, Texas and Circuit Of The Americas for the United States Grand Prix. This is always one of the best races of the year thanks to the track and the atmosphere. Not to mention there’s another Sprint Race on the schedule for this weekend too. How are we dealing with all of the brewing turmoil in Red Bull? Are we taking into account that Max Verstappen has already won the World Championship? What are the tracks and setups most similar to COTA? Who do we predict as the winner of the US Grand Prix and what are the best prop bets? All that is discussed below in this weeks F1 bets.
Betting Trends and Strategy For F1 U.S. Grand Prix
The track at COTA is really just a perfect portmanteau of other F1 tracks. When the designers drew it up, they took their favorite parts of other Formula One tracks and combined them into the 3.4-mile track outside of Austin, Texas. It’s a track with high-speed sections and low-speed corners and quite a bit of elevation change, especially in the front stretch. How does all of this effect the strategy we use for betting the U.S. Grand Prix?
The first thing we’re looking at is that overtaking is possible here, given the first corner and the other lines to enter corners. The second thing to note is that because the track is made up of other tracks, basically, we can use other tracks as a basis for who should be good here. Tracks like Silverstone, Azerbaijan, and Suzuka are all tracks with similar setups and styles to COTA. While it’s true that Red Bull has been dominating this year, it doesn’t mean that others can’t make gains, like we saw at those similar circuits earlier in the year. There’s also the fact that plenty of drivers are pushing for potentially new rides, or to save theirs, for next year at this point in the season which can change how they perform. We should be looking at the more recent races for performances as those are the races with the most recent updates to the cars and thus the better pace and handling to judge.
Winner Predictions For F1 COTA Race
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Max Verstappen (-450)
We can’t really count Verstappen out despite him already having wrapped up everything there is to wrap up this season. Anytime he’s in the Red Bull and on track he’s a threat to win no matter where in the grid he’s starting.
Lando Norris (+1200)
It’s easy to say that Piastri has been faster lately, however the results still lean in Norris’ direction. He’s finished better than Piastri in four of the last five races in which a McLaren driver has finished on the podium. While they say that there is no driver favoritism happening during in-race strategy calls, it’s tough to think that Norris doesn’t have more pull than the rookie Piastri. Considering how lightning fast Norris was at Silverstone and Suzuka, that should carryover to COTA this weekend and make him a threat.
Lewis Hamilton (+2200)
On the right tracks this year, Mercedes and the Silver Arrows have been fast. This is setting up to be one of those tracks. Mercedes will need a lot to go right for them this weekend to pull it off though from mistakes by Red Bull to having the perfect setup. That being said with them still fighting for number two in the constructors championship and Hamilton trying to make up ground in the drivers standings as well, this could be that weekend.
Best Prop Bets For U.S. Grand Prix
Oscar Piastri Podium Finish (-105)
McLaren has been all over the podium of late and Piastri has been a big part of that. His teammate, Norris, is going off at -165 currently so getting closer to even money on Piastri is nice. When you factor in the sprint race at Qatar, Piastri has finished on three-straight podiums which is right there with Norris as well.
Sergio Perez Podium Finish (+140)
It’s been a rough season for Perez to say the least. He’s had race wins, podiums, wrecks, disastrous weekends, and performances questioned all just this year. Now is his time to solidify the thought that he should remain with Red Bull in 2024 and what better way to do that than to podium? Prior to the last three races, Checo podiumed in three-of-four races between Hungary and Italy. He clearly has the race pace to do well, he simply needs to have a clean practice and sprint to make it to Sunday’s Grand Prix with a shot.
McLaren Double Podium Finish (+200)
We’re talking about perhaps the hottest team in the paddock right now. McLaren has pulled this off the last two Grand Prix and the last Sprint Race at Qatar. They also nearly pulled it off at Silverstone for the British Grand Prix with Piastri finishing less than a second behind Hamilton in P4. Lets bank on the hot streak continuing with another good race Weeknd from the orange-clad duo.
Race Winner Without – Yuki Tsunoda (+1400)
This prop takes out Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin. So we’re just looking for the best finishers amongst the “bottom tier” tiers in Williams, AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo, Haas, and Alpine. That’s got to be Yuki right now. The speed he’s shown the last several races is quite impressive and he’s on record stating how much he loves the feel of the track at COTA. Anytime we can get a driver who’s streaking in speed and comfortable at a track we’ll take it.
