Matt Selz
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The F1 schedule begins its summer sprint with another race this weekend in Barcelona. The Spain GP is up next in the 2023 F1 schedule for Round 8 and presents another chance for Red Bull to exert its dominance over the field. The track has changed a bit since last year’s grand prix which should change the pace of the laps and the race a bit, as well. With what we’ve seen from the start of practice this weekend, what we’ve seen at past races this year, and here in the past, what can we expect on Sunday?
Let’s talk betting strategy and predictions for the F1 Spanish GP in Barcelona.
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Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya track layout
The track in Barcelona is more than 30 years old but just got a facelift this past year. The 14-turn. 4.65-km (2.89-mi) track had its final chicane removed since last year’s race, which makes the final 3 corners a lot speedier and more vital to the next lap than previously. It’s also one of the fastest tracks on the schedule even before we factor in the 2 DRS zones, including the one over the long front stretch. The teams that have done well with high-speed tracks and corners over the last year or so should be expected to do well this weekend.
Spanish Grand Prix betting strategies
Passing is possible here, albeit tough over the speedy layout described above. That means that just because a driver isn’t on the pole doesn’t mean he can’t win but it will take effective use of DRS and pit strategy to help. We have seen tire degradation be a bit of an issue in the past as well thanks to the high-speeds and forces on the tires which could also help passing chances. In general, though, like most F1 circuits if we expect big place changes from the starting grid to finish line then we will need safety cars and chaos to really shift things up.
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Outright winner predictions for F1 Spanish GP
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Max Verstappen -330
Yeah, the odds aren’t great — but can we blame the books at this point? There’s a real chance that he doesn’t lose again this year. He led both FP1 and FP2, although FP1 was more of a tire test than anything else. It hasn’t really mattered how he’s done in practice this year nor has it mattered where he’s qualified. Perhaps he’ll mess up qualifying a bit and get longer odds than currently, but I wouldn’t bank on it. Oh yeah, and Verstappen won this race last year by 13 seconds over his teammate.
Fernando Alonso +850
If there’s been a consistent threat to Verstappen this year it’s been Alonso — maybe not in wins, but in race speed and practice runs. Let’s also not forget that this is his last trip to his track and the fanfare around it has been enormous. In FP2, the non-tire-test session, he ran second to Verstappen which at least puts him in the ballpark. Plus Aston Martin is working in a new front wing this week which they expect to play well on the high-speed layout that is Barcelona.
Carlos Sainz +4000
It’s his home race. Sure, the speed hasn’t been as consistent with Ferrari this year (hence the odds) but if there was any race the Scuderia would give him a shot at it’s his home grand prix. He will need likely more than one of the Red Bull’s have an absolute disaster of a race but if that happens it’s hard to beat 40/1 odds in a car with the quality of Ferrari.
Best prop bets for Barcelona
Esteban Ocon top-6 finish (+160)
He may have had his first podium in quite a while, and his first top-six of the season, just last week but he’s in form again. He ran top six in FP1 and FP2 so it didn’t really matter if they were tire testing or not and the Sky Sports broadcast may have helped Ocon’s engineers to adjust the setup to help in a key corner. The Alpines have been speedy most of the year and Ocon is on a hot streak.
Fastest Pit Stop: Ferrari (+150)
The running joke in F1 has been the Ferrari pit strategy but when they have pitted, they have been fast. In fact this year, when it hasn’t been Red Bull with the fastest pit it’s been Ferrari. They have split evenly through the first 6 races of the year so why not take the plus odds on the prop rather than the Red Bull odds (-150) on the same prop?
Winning Margin Over 10 Seconds
Verstappen can just set the cruise control now and be good. Who are we kidding they don’t have cruise control but he does routinely look like he is out on a Sunday drive in most of his wins. Now that the final chicane isn’t there and it’s even easier to carry speed toward the ned of the lap and keep widening a lead. Even if it’s not Verstappen, the leader should have a clean track to extend a lead late.
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