Matt Selz
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After a few weeks off following the Japan GP, F1 is back in the Middle East with the Qatar Grand Prix. It’s a pivotal weekend in the 2023 Formula One season as it’s the first chance for Max Verstappen to clinch the F1 title. The newly repaved Lusaill Circuit has been wreaking havoc with drivers all weekend, as has the weather. Can we look forward to any driver challenging Red Bull and Verstappen this weekend? Can we take anything from the lone practice session on Friday for betting? What about that weather? All of that plus winner predictions and prop bets ahead!
Qatar Grand Prix Betting Strategies
The Lusaill Circuit isn’t a new one for the F1 schedule, but the surface is. They repaved the entire track since last year and the new surface has been causing problems all weekend. The grip hasn’t been as high as expected right out of the gate, nor is it taking rubber off the tires as much as expected. The other issue with it this weekend has been the sand. Sure, it’s the middle of a dessert environment, but typically the sand isn’t as much of an issue. Why is this weekend different? Well, it still has sand on it from being freshly repaved and the weather. What weather? The wind.
It’s VERY windy around the track this weekend which has caused more sand to blow onto the surface as well as blow cars offline in key corners. What will that effect in the race? Well, if a driver goes out of the track limits too many times, they’ll receive a time penalty which could change the official finishing order of the race.
F1 Qatar Grand Prix Winner Best Bets
Max Verstappen (-600 at DraftKings)
Do we really have to explain this one? He’s won everything this year and is on the pole… again. The only real question is by how much does he win by?
George Russell (+1100 at DraftKings)
Russell is starting P2 on Sunday and the Mercedes duo has looked every bit that fast. The problem is that starting P2 is still behind Verstappen. If they get the strategy jump, or a better start than Verstappen, Russell should be able to hold him off for the win. Mercedes has been good with strategy basically all year and this week should be no different.
Oscar Piastri (+2500 at DraftKings)
Piastri won the Sprint Race on Saturday, though he started from the pole. The McLarens have looked speedy all weekend and with him starting P6 on a track with a few overtaking spots, he should have chances to move up. He will be favored in strategy over Lando Norris given that Piastri is starting closer to the front and has shown better speed the last few weeks.
Best Prop Bets For F1 Qatar Grand Prix
Red Bull Double Top-6 Finish (+110 at DraftKings)
Sure, Sergio Perez qualified P13 in the grid but he ran top-five in practice speeds. He’s been up and down all year, however this is too good of a spot to assuming that Perez won’t be able to move up through the field just based on strategy throughout the race.
Yuki Tsunoda Top-10 Finish (+135 at DraftKings)
He’s starting P11 on Sunday so why are we getting such good odds when all he has to do is move up one spot? The practice speed was good enough for P6 on Friday and he’s had the pace to notch top-10s much of the season. These odds are simply too good not to take advantage of.
Over 17.5 Classified Finishers (+120 at DraftKings)
For the most part we’ve had a lot of clean races this year. This gives us wiggle room for two drivers to drop out and not be classified by race’s end and still pay plus money. It’s expected to be a tight start and tight passing chances which means a few of the low-tier drivers are likely to get damage that will force them to drop out of the race.
