Matt Selz
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Welcome to Miami where the players play as the lyric famously goes. More aptly though, where the drivers drive in the F1 Miami Grand Prix around Hard Rock Stadium’s grounds. The second edition of the Miami GP is set to be a very interesting one based on how the first 4 races of the F1 season have broken down. As the cars take the track for the first United States Grand Prix this year, let’s take a look at the bets for Sunday afternoon’s race.
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Miami Grand Prix Track Layout and Betting Strategies
The excitement that Miami can generate for sporting events was palpable last year and is once again palpable this year. The temporary — with a permanent feel — street circuit in and around the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Rock Stadium is a challenging circuit to say the least. It is a mix of high-speed straights and esses, a stadium section, elevation changes, and three DRS zones. All-in-all, the 19-turn, 5.41-km (3.36-mi) lap has a lot packed into it that reminds us of a mix between Albert Park in Australia and Azerbaijan.
In last year’s inaugural race, we saw that passing was a bit challenging unless trying in the heavy braking corners of Turns 1, 11, and 17. That figures to be the same again this year as well. Of course the straights, under DRS, can be passing areas too. In general though, the racing in the mid-pack and back was fairly tight and that’s where most of the wrecks and issues occurred. Expect to see a safety car again this year as drivers will push the limits into Turn 11 and the Turns 14-16 chicane. The cars that have had speed on the tracks listed above would expected to be the ones to do well in Miami this weekend.
Miami Grand Prix update after qualifying
Qualifying for the Miami Grand Prix ended with a surprise result as the final session was red-flagged due to a spin by Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, leaving Sergio Perez on pole, but his Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen with work to do in 9th place. Verstappen isn’t the only big name who will have to try to move through the field, with Lewis Hamilton down in 13th after failing to even reach Q3, while McLaren’s Lando Norris is 16th. There is a gap of 16 places between the Aston Martin cars with Fernando Alonso an impressive 2nd on the grid while his Canadian teammate Lance Stroll is 18th.
Latest Miami Grand Prix odds
Perez is now the favorite to score back-to-back wins at -115 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook, with Verstappen now available at +160 odds and Alonso on offer at +700 to take his first win of the season. Leclerc, who starts 7th, has +5000 odds with teammate Sainz at +2200 and Hamilton at +6500.
Check out our Miami Grand Prix guide including where to watch and start time
Outright Winner Predictions for F1 Miami GP
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing unless otherwise noted
Max Verstappen (-250)
Max Verstappen won this race last year and has two wins this year. While his teammate, Sergio Perez (+330), also has two wins on the year, and is the reigning street course king, is intriguing, this comes down to team orders. Verstappen is still Red Bull’s best bet to win the World Championship, and thus when push comes to shove, they’ll give the order and the win to Verstappen.
Fernando Alonso (+1400)
The resurgent Spaniard has been on fire this year with the speed in his Aston Martin. That should be the case again this weekend in Miami. He’s had good speed at similar tracks to Miami this year already and even in his Alpine last year flashed top-5 speed here. Granted, he’s likely going to need a break to fall his way with one, or both, of the Red Bulls likely to be strong. Given how tough Alonso can be to pass, if he gets the lead he could hold it for a while.
Charles Leclerc (+1400)
Oh, when is the promise of the talent going to gel with a clean race weekend for Ferrari? He was on the pole here a year ago and the Ferraris have typically been fast on this type of circuit since this current generation of F1 rolled onto the grid last year. If the right combination of scenarios come together for Leclerc and Ferrari and strategy, the return will be nice.
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Best Prop Bets For Miami Grand Prix
Yuki Tsunoda Top-10 Finish (+175)
Tsunoda put together quite a great drive last weekend in Azerbaijan and got a top-10 finish. Couple that with his flashing of top-10 speed here last year and him saying how he liked the track and we could be looking at a back-to-back top-10 for Tsunoda. The Alphatauris have been strong on these types of tracks over the last year and change.
Verstappen and Alonso Podium Finish Parlay (+130)
This has happened three times in four races this year and Alonso finished P4 in Azerbaijan by less than a second to Leclerc. It’s a prebuilt parlay on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but getting plus money on something that has happened 75-percent of the time already is nice to be sure.
Sergio Perez Fastest Lap (+185)
This one comes down to race flow and maximizing points. If the goal for Red Bull is to take as many points as possible this weekend, and we expect them to favor Verstappen, they should box Checo late in the race to put on soft tires and go run a hot lap. Perez has posted the fastest or second-fastest lap twice already this year. If they’re not going to have Checo win, the least they could do is throw him the bone of the extra championship point.
Best Long Shot Prop Bet For Miami Grand Prix
Logan Sargeant Top-10 Finish (+500)
These odds are long for a reason. He’s a rookie and hasn’t looked super fast just yet. But… he’s now at his home race. Sargeant, the first American in F1 in a while, grew up 45 minutes from Hard Rock Stadium and has said, a lot, this race is a dream opportunity for him. How sweet of a storyline would it be for the American driver on the grid to nab his first World Championship point at his home track? Not to mention that the crowd should give him a speed boost just like we see at other drivers’ home tracks. One last tidbit is that Alex Albon consistently showed top-10 times in his Williams last year, why can’t Sargeant do the same?
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