Matt Selz
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F1 returns to its birthplace this week — the Silverstone Circuit. The historic track is one of the best circuits on the schedule every year and with many teams and drivers based in England, it’s basically a home race for everyone. Silverstone is arguably as historic and significant as Monaco — though with a lot more exciting action. The famed layout of Silverstone provides a lot of excitement and strategy.
What does this mean for our F1 betting this weekend? Do we expect Red Bull to keep their domination rolling? Can anyone challenge Red Bull this weekend? All of that plus winner predictions and prop bets below.
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Silverstone Track Layout
Built around RAF Silverstone, a former Royal Air Force base, in 1950, the 3.6-mile (5.89-km), 18-turn layout is a test of man and machine fitting its location. Lewis Hamilton has previously stated that driving a lap at race pace around Silverstone is like flying a fighter jet that would’ve taken off from the airfield in the infield. There is a perfect blend of high-speed, medium-speed, and low-speed corners and most have famous names like Maggotts, Becketts, Abbey, and the “Esses”. Combine that with the straightaways and the rougher track surface and you have a perfectly fair test of driver, car, and team’s strategies.
Betting Strategies for F1 Silverstone GP
Speaking of strategies, the betting on F1 has seemed straightforward this year, but now comes Silverstone. Red Bull has been on a tear all year, winning every round thus far, but they haven’t won at Silverstone since 2012 even with as dominant as Max Verstappen has been the last couple of years. It’s also a track where there is more pressure on a lot of teams than normal given how close 7-of-the-10 teams on the grid are to the track. A few of the circuits already raced on this year are similar to Silverstone in tire degradation and car setup with those being Bahrain and Spain. Another thing complicating things a bit is that a few teams are starting to bring their car upgrades for this weekend which means they won’t have the same cars as the previous comparable races. So the question we have to wrestle with is will Red Bull continue their domination or will their now decade-long streak of not winning at Silverstone stay alive?
Winner Predictions for F1 British GP
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Max Verstappen (-360)
There’s no doubt he’s the best driver in the field with the best car and the best team every week. This week appears no different through Friday practices. The only thing that will stop him is a bad mistake or a car problem other than the downshifting he’s become well-known for complaining about. It’s hard to see how the losing streak at Silverstone continues past Sunday.
Carlos Sainz (+1600)
Sainz was faster than his teammate last weekend in race pace. He’s even, or better, than him this weekend too. The Ferraris are still faster, slightly, than Red Bulls in the corners and there might just be enough on this circuit to keep Sainz, or Charles Leclerc (+1600), ahead of Verstappen when it counts. There’s also a shot at rain on Sunday and that might take away some of Red Bull’s raw speed and play into Ferrari’s hands.
Lando Norris (+8000)
Here’s a long shot for the weekend as we’ve got to spice things up somehow right? First of all, the British drivers tend to get a boost from the crowd at their home grand prix. Secondly, McLaren has a snazzy new livery and car setup that sped along in Austria a weekend ago. Thirdly, Norris has been getting better as the season has gone on and if the rain comes that plays into Norris’ hands. We need some sort of break if we’re hoping for a win from McLaren’s lead driver.
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Best Prop Bets for Silverstone
Alex Albon Top-6 Finish (+350)
This is the exact kind of track where Williams has exceeded expectations since last year. In both of the first practices, Albon put his car in P3 on the speed charts and the car looks very stable and racy through the key corners on the track. This could be a great weekend for Williams at a track they’re used to running well at historically.
Logan Sargeant Points Finish (+300)
It’s been a rough first several F1 races of the American rookie but things are turning around. Sargeant has been making strides in his development and ran P5 in FP2 pretty convincingly. This one is a risky one as he’s not finished in the points yet this year but the speed is there to make this return a good one to stake.
Oscar Piastri Points Finish (+125)
A fellow rookie, like Sargeant, Piastri has managed two points finishes so far and has come close a couple of more times. It’s now his turn to get the upgrades to the McLaren that Lando Norris got last week and the updates have already returned speed as he ran top-10 in both practices this weekend. Piastri getting plus money when he’s finished P11 or better four times in nine races is also too nice to overlook.
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