Matt Selz
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Who hasn’t had dreams of driving as fast as you can through your neighborhood park and flying around the lake? The F1 drivers get to do just that this weekend at the Australian Grand Prix on the Albert Park Circuit. The circuit is made up the road that loops around Albert Park in Melbourne, Australia.
Australian Grand Prix Betting Strategy
The first thing we’ll notice about the track is that it’s a tight racing surface and racing line around the 3.27-mile (5.278-km) circuit. That and just how green the surrounding grass is. This has led to races in which it’s tough to pass at despite the inclusion of a second DRS zone prior to last year. Usually it comes down to the strategy of the teams or, unluckily, reliability issues. That was the case last year where Mercedes used strategy and Red Bull had a failure which shifted the top-10 a bit.
The other thing to take into account this weekend is that FP2 had some weather and mishaps that obscured the true speeds of the cars. So while it was run at the same time of day as the race will be, it wasn’t as helpful as a typical FP2 can be at other races. We’ve also seen the emergence of team orders already this year and so we’ll need to keep this mind when betting props and points/places are on the line. During practice weekend there were plenty of cars in the gravel pit and having issues with some of the trickier corners on the layout, expect a safety car or virtual safety at some point in the race.
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Winner Predictions for F1 Australian Grand Prix
Odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Max Verstappen (-280)
This has become commonplace at this point. He’s proven that he can win no matter what goes on during the course of the weekend. It’s not like Verstappen hasn’t been quick again this weekend either. I have some interest in betting Sergio Perez (+380) since he won the last race, but ultimately expect Red Bull to call the team order card and keep Verstappen in from at the end of the race.
Fernando Alonso (+700)
If there’s been one driver to take it to Red Bull this year it’s been Alonso. That doesn’t mean that he’s been successful yet as he’s finished no better than P3 in either race. However, he does have speed again this weekend and topped the speed charts in FP2 for whatever that’s worth. If he can out-qualify the Red Bulls, he can make it tough to pass on the tight racing lines that make up the Albert Park Circuit. One last tidbit, the race is on April 2nd in Australia, the last time they race on that date, Alonso won the race for those numerologists reading this.
Charles Leclerc (+2200)
Leclerc is the defending race winner after all. We can’t discount that, as much as we want to. We also can’t discount the fact that not only does Ferrari have speed again, but Leclerc called this the best Friday session they’ve had in a while. Having a happy Leclerc is half the battle for the Scuderia. You may want to get these odds now before qualifying because if he does in fact out-qualify one or both of the Red Bulls, they will get shorter.
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Best Prop Bets For Albert Park Circuit
Ferrari double top-6 finish (-140)
This hasn’t happened yet this year, but there’s always got to be a first right? Both practice sessions on Friday had the prancing horses in the top-six on the charts and this has been a good track for them in the past. Lastly, outside of Red Bull, no other team has looked as consistent with their two cars this weekend making these odds more appealing too.
Winning Margin between 5-10 seconds (+200)
This bet comes down to a race flow and track flow read. We’ve seen in practice that there’s been a ton of traffic in key spots of the track and that will lead to the leaders getting slowed up just a tad. We’ve also seen that when it’s the two Red Bulls out front they tend to be with in 5-10 seconds of each other by race’s end.
17 classified finishers (+285)
Races this year have seen 17 and 18 classified finishers. The last several races in Australia have also seen exactly 17 classified finishers. While we have a lot less wiggle room betting the exact number, we also get improved odds if it hits. Let’s throw out this example. The Over 16.5 Classified Finishers line, that line is currently -220 while the Under 17.5 Classified Finishers line is -150. So if we’re betting $10 on each of these bets and it turns out that 17 drivers are classified at the end of the race, it’s clear that the better payout is the exact number. Just like Roulette, the better odds are betting exact numbers rather than black or red or a range of landing spots.
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