Matt Selz
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We have arrived at the season finale of the 2023 F1 season. The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix has been the season-ending race for a while now, in fact surpassing Australia for more finales. The venue is spectacular and puts on a good show under the lights, however the racing can be questionable at times.
What do I mean by that? What is the betting strategy for the Abu Dhabi GP? Are there any storylines or narratives at play for the bets this weekend? Who are we predicting to win the Abu Dhabi GP and what are the best prop bets for the race? All that and more below.
Yas Marina circuit layout
The 3.27-mile Herman Tilke layout has been the season finale locale of choice for a while now by the FIA. It’s 16 corners, half and half between left and right handers, is a fair test of racing — although not the most exciting racing. Most of the corner are considered high-speed and it’s most distinguishing feature is certainly about speed. The 1.2-km straight between Turns 5 & 6 is a very good chance to drag race into the key braking zone of Turn 6. There are a couple of DRS zones on the track but that’s not been enough in the past to help the overtaking chances on the track — especially coming off the overtaking affair in Vegas, which sported the second-most overtaking chances of the season.
Betting strategies for F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
With what’s known about the layout for Abu Dhabi and the Yas Marina Circuit, how do we approach this for betting? The first thing to note about this grand prix is that the pole-sitter has won the race 8 years running. That doesn’t bode well for overtaking and moving up for those not starting on the pole. That being said, though, there are a couple of teams in the field that are capable of winning from further back. The other betting strategy we are using is to compare this track to other higher speed layouts like Silverstone, Qatar, Vegas, Monza and even Australia. Teams that performed well in those races, not practices, should perform well this weekend, as well. We also want to look at the teams with narratives and storylines coming into the race weekend. Aston Martin wants to prove that they are back to where they were at the start of the season, while McLaren is trying to have a driver with their best finish in more than a decade. Ferrari is trying to wipe clean their mistakes by locking down their second win of the year and beating out Mercedes in the constructors championship.
F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix winner predictions
All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook
Max Verstappen -390
The only time Verstappen didn’t win this year was getting sniped by his teammate and a bad setup in Singapore. That won’t be the case again this weekend. He has been pretty racy this weekend, just like all season. It hasn’t much mattered where he qualifies either as he and his pit crew pick up spots a good clip. Even with these negative odds, these are still some of the best odds we have seen for a while for him.
Lando Norris +1100
McLaren is trying to get Norris to finish top 4 in the driver’s standings. It would be their first top-4 driver since Lewis Hamilton in 2012 — his last year with the team. Norris has the speed to win a race, especially on the high-speed tracks like Vegas, Qatar and Silverstone recently. If he qualifies well, he should be a serious threat on Sunday for the win and locking in a top-4 spot in the standings.
Charles Leclerc +1400
Leclerc was tops on the practice speed in Friday and was racing right up there with Verstappen at the front of the pack in Las Vegas. The only reason he didn’t win was a pit strategy screw up — yet again — during a safety car. If it all came down to speed, Leclerc have shorter odds and banking on Ferrari strategist to pay off bets is risky. But it’s still worth it, as Ferrari tries to go out with a win.
Best prop bets for F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook
McLaren double top-6 finish +130
McLaren has been showing a lot of speed the last few weeks and Norris — despite the wreck in Vegas — has been squarely in the top 3 in speed. That’s the same this weekend. Oscar Piastri should be able to fight for a top-6 spot, as well. The pit crew should help them pick up a few spots as well if they nail the strategy again.
Alfa Romeo top-10 finish +900
Both Alfa Romeo’s were top 10 in FP2. They have also been showing better speed the last few weeks as well. The last time the racing was in the middle east we saw the Alfa duo finish in the top 10 and the higher speed tracks have been better for them all season. This layout favors them and their Ferrari power trains. With these kinds of odds and this setup it’s too hard to look past.
Fastest pit stop McLaren +200
McLaren has trailed Red Bull the last few races true, however, they still have six of the top-10 fastest stops all season. That includes a world record time, too. The will be doing everything they can to try and get Lando Norris enough points to nab fourth in the driver’s championship. Red Bull is at -105, which is still reasonable, but the return on McLaren for being the second-best pit crew all year is too hard to pass up.
