Matt Selz
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Monza — the Temple of Speed – is the host venue for this weekend’s Formula 1 Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia 2022. Also known as the Italian Grand Prix, round 16 of the 2022 F1 schedule will put all of the teams to the ultimate speed test with the fastest circuit on the schedule. It’s also fitting that crunch time for Ferrari in both the driver and constructor championship comes at one of their home tracks.
Can they put the bad mojo behind them for a home race even after their truck caught fire heading to the track?
The race weekend hasn’t started yet, but Ferrari is already having problems 🤯
The truck bringing the engines from Zandvoort to Monza caught on fire due to the brakes overheating!
Ferrari really cannot catch a break 😭#F1 #ItalianGP #Monza pic.twitter.com/NDitsBZsFs
— F1 Data Analysis 📈 (@F1DataAnalysis) September 6, 2022
Monza track layout & betting strategies
Monza is a bit of a one-off track in F1. The pure speed and setup of the cars here are unlike basically any other layout on the Formula 1 schedule. It’s a relatively short lap at just under 3.6 miles each time around. While it has 11 “corners,” not all of them are really corners; a few are simply parts of chicanes to get speeds in check. There are two DRS zones on the track to help with overtaking but it could be a bit challenging for most teams to pass. The teams with the best low-downforce setups this season should flourish at Monza. Tracks like Azerbaijan, Canada, Jeddah, Imola and even a bit of Spa can be compared to Monza, although not fully. There are several grid penalties in place this weekend — including both Red Bulls, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz, Valtteri Bottas and Yuki Tsunoda that will make in-race strategy paramount to hitting winning bets.
F1 Italian Grand Prix outright winners
All odds listed taken from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Best bet: Max Verstappen (-160)
Is there any other choice? He has won 10 times this year in 15 races and shows no signs of stopping. Red Bull and Verstappen have been fast regardless of starting spot or track type or length. There’s really no concern here about him taking his foot off the gas even with a massive lead in the F1 title fight…well not much of a fight! Even with the five-spot grid penalty, he should still make it back to the front quite early in the race.
Charles Leclerc (+175)
If there’s any time for a revival to his World Championship hopes, it would be the Italian GP. Right? This track should set up well for Ferrari; aside from being a home race, the speed of the track fits their setup. The trick here is can they avoid the strategy, pit, and reliability issues they have had in nearly every race this year? One bonus for Leclerc in his chances of winning is that Lewis Hamilton will be starting at the back of the gird due to penalties. Leclerc is in win-now mode and desperation can be good for speed.
Sergio Perez (+4000)
We like Red Bull this weekend right? Well, we’re betting his teammate to win and below, spoiler alert, his team to hit a prop. So yeah, seems like we like Red Bull. Checo is part of the reasoning for that. He’s been fast at the lower-downforce, high-speed tracks like Jeddah, Azerbaijan, Imola and Spa. There’s also this: with Verstappen’s lead in the title standings secure, they won’t move Perez out of the way for Verstappen since it helps Red Bull in the constructor standings.
Best prop bets for Italian Grand Prix
Red Bull double podium finish (+120)
What?!?! How? Did DraftKings mess this line up? Verstappen by himself is -450 for a podium finish and Sergio Perez is -190, so why is it plus odds for both to finish in the top three? They have been incredibly fast at this type of track with three double podiums so far this year. Considering Ferrari always seems to mess up and Hamilton is starting at the back of the grid, that’s potentially three cars out of the way for a Red Bull double podium.
Alpine double top-6 finish (+300)
The logic here is simple. Alpines have been very fast in straight-line speed and at some of the lower-downforce tracks like Azerbaijan, they were the fastest on the straights. Both Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso have been capable of finishing top six this year separately, as well. This weekend they both have a shot to finish top six if this setup is kind to them once more. If you would prefer a bit more of a safer bet, we can bet them for a double top-10 finish like last week – although that is at minus money.
Aston Martin double top-10 finish (+650)
Like the bet above, this comes down to two drivers who have been capable of finishing top 10 individually this year but maybe haven’t quite put it all together as a team. Aston Martin, like Alpine, has been better at tracks like Canada, Imola, Spa, Azerbaijan and Jeddah – which are all lower downforce tracks. Lance Stroll has finished P11 or better in six of the last seven races and Sebastian Vettel has done that in four of the last six. If they can get both to pull that off on Sunday, a nice return is in store for us.
Charles Leclerc fastest qualifier (+250)
Even with Ferrari’s disasters in strategy and reliability during races, they still have top-end speed to start races. Leclerc has started P1 or P2 11 times in 14 races without a penalty. A home race for the Scuderia and a low-downforce, high-speed circuit should add some boost to Leclerc, as well. He is in win now mode, as we said above, and will want the pole to get the immediate jump on Verstappen.
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