Matt Selz
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The Mexico City Grand Prix. Also known as Round 20 of the 2022 F1 schedule. Hosted at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, it’s one of the highest tracks that’s raced on regularly at more than 2km in elevation. The elevation, along with the tight track lines and the passionate stands make this track a festival in its own right and then comes the amazing racing.
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Mexico City Grand Prix betting strategy
The Mexico City circuit, located in the middle of a sports park, is one of the favorites on the schedule. The front straight has one of the longest run ups to Turn 1 of any circuit F1 goes to and often times that creates chaos at the start of the races as drivers battle for slip streams. Just how much of a slip stream is in play? Well, last year Leclerc became the first pole-sitter to lead the first lap in several years.
Why is the slip stream so powerful here? The Mexico City GP being held at 2.2km above sea level, or 1.36 miles, means there’s 78% less oxygen to breathe and that goes for the engines as well. It means the turbos have to work harder to produce the same horsepower and the brakes get worked more as well. Typically we’ve seen the Honda powered cars outperform the Ferrari and Mercedes powered ones, but with the new cars this year that might change. Why might that change? Ferrari and Mercedes have been better and more competitive at tracks with more slow speed corners at it, which this track has aside from the long front stretch.
Outright Winners for F1 Mexico GP
Odds posted from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sergio Perez (+300)
Sure, we could keep going with Max Verstappen (-150) as he’s been dominant this year having won 13 races already. However, this is Checo’s home track and the home crowd can be worth quite a bit of speed with the cheering. There’s also the fact that Checo has been right with Verstappen in speed at both FP1 and FP2. There’s two more chances after this for Verstappen to get the single-season win record but denying Perez a win in his home country won’t be on the checklist for Red Bull this week.
Charles Leclerc (+600)
Leclerc had the fastest car in FP1, the only practice on Friday that meant anything for the race. He’s had great speed all year and Ferrari just hasn’t put it to use. This week with the track the way it’s designed, plays into Ferrari’s hand with plenty of slow-speed corners and only one long straight. Historically, the high altitude hasn’t played into most team’s hands, but perhaps the new car will help level the playing field.
Longshot: George Russell (+4500)
While the talk is all about getting Lewis Hamilton a win this season, that may not be feasible this week. So, we turn our attention to his teammate, Russell, who put up the fastest lap in practice if we blend FP2 (non-tire-test times) with FP1. While it is certainly a small sample size to go off of, we’ve also seen Russell be very good on the tracks with the slower speed corners. Knowing that Mercedes also has been a lot more competitive on the smoother tracks, of which Mexico City is one, this could be a sneaky shot at Mercedes getting a win this weekend.
Best Prop Bets for Mexican Grand Prix
Alpine Double top-10 finish (-150)
Esteban Ocon finished P11 last week at COTA, had he held on to his top-10 spot he’d held much of the race, Alpine would’ve had a second-straight double top-10. Fernando Alonso put up the sixth-best lap in FP1 and if we take Ocon’s lap from FP2, prior to the tire test, he’d have been eighth-fastest in FP1. If we’re feeling lucky, or ballsy, we could bet them for a double top-six at +550 but the odds gap between these two bets should tell you how Vegas feels about their chances.
Red Bull double podium finish (-120)
They have the fastest cars on track…again. They’ve been dominant all season and have pulled off this feat six times already — the most of any team. There’s more than that though. Sergio Perez has finished P4 four times this year, in addition to his podiums, and in all of those fourth-place finishes, Verstappen won the race. So, in essence Red Bull have been a threat to double podium 10 times in 19 races.
Sebastian Vettel top-10 finish (-105)
Vettel is certainly showing his best form as his final season of F1 winds down in a few races. He comes into Mexico City with three straight top-10 finishes and one in five of his last seven races. In practice on Friday at FP1 he ran inside the top-10 and then among cars doing the Pirelli tire test in FP2 he was among the 10 fastest for what it’s worth. Aston Martin is peaking right now as they try and solidify their standing in the constructors points battle. Vettel nabbing another top-10 is good for them and good for us.
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