Matt Selz
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Zandvoort, the storied seaside track in the Netherlands, is the host venue once more for the Dutch Grand Prix. Following a wild Belgian GP last weekend, are we in store for my chaos this weekend? It can’t be any more chaotic than the McLaren-Alpine-Oscar-Piastri situation which just got settled, so perhaps that’s a sign of clean racing to come.
Let’s take a look at the track for this weekend’s race.
Zandvoort track layout & betting strategies
This 14-turn track has a very tight racing line over its just-over-two-mile distance. Not only is it a tight racing line, it’s also a terrain driven layout. Built on sand dunes, it has quite a bit of undulation over the course of each lap. That, combined with the corners means that high-downforce setups will excel here, like some other tracks earlier this year like Hungary and Azerbaijan. The downside of this track is that it can be tough for overtaking like Monaco and also Azerbaijan even with the banking in place in turn 3 and 13 and 14.
F1 Dutch Grand Prix outright winners
Best bet: Max Verstappen (+100)
He’s won the last two races this year and nine overall on the year. He’s not looked the best in practice so far this weekend but it is his home race. We’ve also got the fact that we can trust Red Bull to figure out setups and strategy come Sunday. It’s too hard not to include Verstappen at this point at positive odds.
Lewis Hamilton (+650)
This might be the weekend for Mercedes to log a win in 2022. Hamilton has been fast this weekend so far and the high-downforce setups have been the best for Mercedes this year. While it’s been considered a lost season for Mercedes, it doesn’t mean that the Seven-time world champ can’t snag a win at a track he’s been good at historically with car that’s been fast this weekend. You could also throw a bet on George Russell (+1100) since he’s finished top-5 in all but one race this year.
Carlos Sainz (+700)
The main question with this bet is do we trust Ferrari? Sainz has the speed this weekend to be a threat and has out-qualified Leclerc in 4-of-the-last-6 races. So if he starts in front of Leclerc and has been more consistently fast than Leclerc this weekend and there’s no team orders for Ferrari, why not bet Sainz? Again this all comes down to trusting Ferrari with strategy.
Lando Norris (+8000)
The news has been great for McLaren so far this weekend with the winning of the Oscar Piastri contract dispute. It could be better though. Norris could win. He has the speed having run P4 at both FP1 and FP2 and the high-downforce package has been good for McLaren. Remember back to mid-season when McLaren started to show signs of life and put up good finishes? Those were high-downforce tracks…just like Zandvoort. These are long odds, especially for F1 but one long shot already won this year at Monaco, a track like Zandvoort in terms of tight racing lines.
Best prop bets for Dutch Grand Prix
Mercedes double podium finish (+450)
It’s been a good run of results for Mercedes over the last several races. That run should continue here this weekend. The Silver Arrows have been good as a team on tracks in the high-downforce setups, like Zandvoort. They also showed good speed here early in the weekend as well. The only reason that they aren’t starting higher than P4 and P6 is due to a safety car that cost them the end of their respective flying laps. With Red Bull having tire wear concerns and Ferrari having their typical concerns about strategy and actual pace, there’s an opening here for Mercedes to both finish top-three.
Favorite: Alpine double top-10 finish (+150)
Just like Mercedes, were talking about a team with more practice speed and race pace than qualifying showed. They, the Alpine duo of Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso, qualified P12 and P13 respectively. Both ran inside the top-10 much of all three practices. With Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda, and Mick Schumacher all starting ahead of Ocon and Alonso, there are spots for the taking to help this duo hit this prop. Not to mention that they’ve combined for 22 top-10 finishes this year out of a possible 28. The odds are in our favor for a good return.
Exactly 17 classified finishers (+275)
There have been a few races already on tight, narrow, tracks like Zandvoort. Each time they’ve raced at this style of track there have been a few drivers each time to not be classified. How many? Well, at Miami, Monaco, Canada, and Austria there were exactly 17 classified finishers. At Azerbaijan, another similar track, there were 16. Getting nearly 3-to-1 odds on a number of classified finishers that’s already happened four times this year is a nice return to be sure.
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