Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Our anytime touchdown scorer saga continues. I’m currently hitting at 20% rate, which is the standard for these props — but it’s not good enough for me. The last few weeks I’ve gone conservative on my choices, avoiding the home-run TD guy in favor a WR2 or TE based on matchup. However, these have been more miss than hit. This week I’m going to get riskier and swing for the fences. I’ll have my favorites, but the long-shots will be slightly longer. Tail responsibly, but I feel something big coming.
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The Favorites
Eno Benjamin -105 +195
Benjamin is thrusted into the starting role this weekend against a Seahawks defense that allows 1.8 rushing TDs per game (31st overall). He had a 11-yard rushing TD last week in the 4Q when Conner went down. With Conner out of the lineup, that freeze up at least 2 redzone rush attempts per game against an opportunistic defense. Benjamin has pass catching ability as well to get in the endzone. I expect a big workload for Eno getting the first start of his career
Chris Godwin (TB) +160 +260
This is a repeat from last week, but against an opponent with a completely depleted secondary. Cameron Sutton, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Levi Wallace, and Ahkello Witherspoon are all out Sunday. Godwin led the Bucs in red zone targets last season and I expect to see more of that against the Steelers. You can add in the Bucs ML if you want to get this to +200.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) -145 +155
Cook is a big play this week for obvious reasons. He’s going against an inferior opponent and the game could get ugly (more rush attempts). Cook also is heading back to his hometown of Miami where family and friends will be in attendance. To add to the script, Alexander Mattison comes in nursing a shoulder injury. I would add Vikings ML to this bet to get over even money, but he Cook should be in for a HUGE game Sunday and it includes atl east 1 TD.
The Longshots
Rondale Moore (ARI) +220 +320
This disparity on this line across multiple books is crazy. I’ve seen it as low as +165, but +220 is fantastic value considering how poor Seattle has been against slot WR’s. Moore is coming off a 8 target 7 reception performance and Arizona will be without James Conner this Sunday, so I’m expecting a pass heavy approach.
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) +240 +340
McKenzie has 3 TDs in 4 games and missed last week vs Pittsburgh. This is the game of the week and both offenses should put on a show. Buffalo will be without Jake Kumerow and Jamison Crowder is on IR. McKenzie has 1TD vs Buffalo and it came in the 2020 playoffs on the road. He will be needed this Sunday and I expect him to see a few opportunities in the redzone, where he is currently 3rd on the team in targets.
Malcolm Brown (LAR) +270 +370
News broke on Friday that Cam Akers will be out on Sunday. The Rams released Jake Funk and roll into the game with just Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. This is Brown’s second stint with the Rams after being released at the beginning of the 2021 season. In 2020, he had 20 redzone rushing attempts for 5 TDs. I expect him to get a few redzone attempts on Sunday and if this game holds true to the spread, he may have a bigger role than most would expect. At nearly 3-1, this is too good to pass up.
The “Why Nots”
Bryce Hopkins (LAR) +1000 +1100
Hopkins returns this week after serving a 6-game suspension for PEDs. The Rams have missed their TE2 these first few weeks, so much so that Ben Skowronek was turned into FB/TE. Hopkins had a role in the Superbowl last year and should be on the field for 30-40% of the snaps this Sunday. This type of play is flyer but would pay off immensely if he cashes.
Johnny Mundt (MIN) +950 +1050
Shocking odds for a guy playing 44% of the snaps. Mundt is the TE2 in the Minnesota offense and is primarily a blocking TE, but he’s logged at least 2 receptions in 4/5 games season. I’m expecting a big dose of Dalvin Cook on Sunday, which would lead to a higher snap count for Mundt. My hope is that when they get inside the 5 and the box is loaded for Dalvin Cook, Mundt peels off the line scrimmage for a wide-open TD.
David Sills (NYG) +650 +750
Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard(IR) are all out. Wan’Dale Robinson is banged up and the Giants ar down to Darius Slayton & Richie James at WR. Sills is a bigger bodied target who has played 67% of the snaps these last 4 games. He’s seen 2+ targets in each game and 2 redzone targets in 5 weeks. The Ravens have given up 6 TD’s in 5 games to opposing WRs and Daboll knows the attention will be on Saquon Barkley. Hopefully we can get Sills a few open looks against a Ravens secondary that has been shuffled with Marcus Williams going on IR. This should be closer to 4-1.
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