Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Through two weeks I am 5-11 on my Anytime TD Scorer props for +0.9 units. If you’ve tailed every one of my TD scorers, you would be in the positive for the season. Considering the difficulty of handicapping touchdown scorers, I’m very happy with this result. Unless stated otherwise, these are meant to be all 0.25-unit plays and you are welcome to parlay/round-robin as you see fit. Let’s get into the Week 3 slate and make sure you’re following me on Twitter @PropHolliday!
Don’t miss our NFL picks for every game in Week 3
NFL Week 3 Anytime touchdown scorer best bets – the favorites
D’Andre Swift (Lions, +115)
As mentioned in another article, this Lions offensive line is so good, they’re allowing their RBs to get 3.79 yards before contact. That’s a dream for Swift, who leads the league in explosive plays and already has 3 TDs on the year. The Vikings are coming off a short week after allowing 2 rushing TDs to Philadelphia. In my humble opinion, this shouldn’t be plus-money.
Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
Michael Pittman (Colts, +170)
After watching what Mike Williams did to the Chiefs on TNF last week, I’m a fan of another big-bodied WR to go off on Sunday. Pittman missed Week 2 with a quad injury, but if he’s good to play I expect him to be a red zone target for Matt Ryan. Pittman had 2 red zone targets and 1 touchdown in Week 1.
Be sure to check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
Elijah Moore (Jets, +200)
Garrett Wilson is officially on everyone’s radar after last weeks performance, so I’m pivoting to Elijah Moore who is second on the team in red zone targets (4) and second on the team in pass snaps to only Tyler Conklin. The Bengals were able to keep Mitch Trubisky in check (yawn), but they made Cooper Rush look so good that Jerry Jones is talking about a QB controversy in Dallas. The Jets offense looked the best it has since Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center, so I’m hoping for a shootout. Flacco has a great connection with Moore, and I think he gets his first touchdown of the season on Sunday.
Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets predictions
Anytime TD scorer best bets for Week 3 – the longshots
Zach Ertz (Cardinals, +270)
The Rams secondary is in flux at the moment. CB Troy Hill is likely out with a groin injury and rookie CB Cobie Durant is out with a hamstring injury. The Cardinals will be missing Rondale Moore and could be without RB James Conner so the offense will rely heavily on Hollywood Brown and Ertz. The veteran TE is coming 11 targets for 8 receptions in Week 2 and should be the #1 option for Kyler Murray. At nearly 3/1, this line feels like a mistake.
Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Tyler Allgeier (Falcons, +400)
The rookie RB got his first action last week against the Rams and performed admirably. He finished with 10 carries for 30 yards and started the first offensive series for Atlanta. What gives me hope is that he graded out positively in pass blocking, which is what you need to see in order to stay on the field. Allgeier was able to pull off 4 red zone rush attempts in one game so that’s enough to get him on my radar. 4/1 is good value considering the Seahawks gave up 2 red zone scores last week to San Francisco.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
Johnny Mundt (Vikings, +700)
Who? Yup, Johnny Mundt. The journeyman TE followed Kevin O’Connell from LA to Minnesota, where he’s brought in primarily in pass protection and run blocking, but has had 3 targets in each of the first two games. He’s involved in red zone packages and could peel one off in what I imagine is a high-scoring game. Mundt has never scored in his career, but at 7/1 I’ll take my chances on what has been the highest snap count to start a season in his career.
Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
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