Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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This Saturday, Christmas Eve, will be loaded with NFL games and for that, we need anytime touchdown scorers to bet on. I’ve had success over the last 2 weeks in pinpointing a few higher odds scorers, but the near even money players have been tough to nail down. This weekend we have a lot of low game totals and inclement weather to consider. For that reason, I will be betting on guys with heavier juice than I normally do. Also, many of these games have playoff implications and this is the time of the year you feed your best players.
Let’s take a look at the best TD scorer prop bets for Saturday’s slate.
Justin Jefferson, MIN (-130)
Jefferson has scored in 5 of the L7 games. This is tied for the highest point total of the day, so Jefferson be able to snag one against an inferior Giants secondary. Adoree’ Jackson will be out for his 5th straight game and Fabian Moreau ranks 76th out of 118 CBs. With the Offensive Player of the Year trophy still up for grabs, I’m banking on Jefferson to put up a performance that will pull him ahead of Tyreek Hill.
Jamaal Williams, DET (+135)
As good as the Carolina Panthers have been playing, I’ll always remember them for giving up 4 TDs in a game to Joe Mixon. Detroit is the hottest team in the league right now and Williams has not scored in 2 weeks. That will be corrected on Saturday against the Panthers.
Derrick Henry, TEN + Tennessee Titans ML (+135)
Henry has owned the Texans historically. He has scored 9 TDs vs the Texans in their last 4 matchups. This is really about getting the Titans ML for plus odds. They’re at home with no Ryan Tannehill and the division still on the line. I expect them to jump on King Henry’s back and ride to victory.
DK Metcalf, SEA (+140)
The Chiefs have given up 19 TDs to opposing WRs this season — the most in the league. The Seahawks will be without Tyler Lockett and a wild card seat in still in the balance for Seattle. I expect Metcalf to have plenty of opportunities to score and if we get a negative game script, he still may score in garbage time.
James Cook, BUF (+320)
You can add the Bills money line to get this up to +380, but for now let’s just focus on the touchdown. The Bears rank 27th overall in Rush DVOA and have allowed 8 total rushes of 20+ yards or more. The rookie scored last week vs Miami and I think this is a great opportunity for the Bills to see what a bigger workload of Cook can look like before the playoffs. The weather will be in the teens, so hopefully the SEC product can handle the cold.
Longshot TD Play: Kyle Juszczyk, SF (+900)
Juszczyk has seen his snap count increase with Purdy under center and is playing 57% of the snaps. He scored 3 weeks ago in Purdy’s first start and scored against Ron Rivera/Washington in 2020. This is strictly an odds play for me because I feel it shouldn’t be that high (probably closer to +600). It would be a Christmas miracle if we cash this one.
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