Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After a great stretch in the middle of the season, the anytime TD lines have become sharper and our last few weekends have been tough. The intention of this article is to provide you with TD scorers that hold value (plus odds). The industry standard win rate is 20%, so to be profitable long term, you must avoid laying the juice wherever possible. This season, we’ve done our best to avoid that in this article, but certain players were just too good to ignore at a -110 price. If I see a team that is a heavy ML favorite, I will add them in to provide additional value to the play. Below are my favorites for this weekend along with a degenerate parlay.
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The Favorites
Brian Robinson, WAS (-106)
The Giants have given up 5 rushing TDs over the last two weeks. That’s not a typo. Antonio Gibson is banged up and might not go on Sunday. Robinson has scored a TD in 2 of the last 3 weeks. He should get another day of double digit carries.
Gus Edwards, BAL (+125)
Edwards returned last week, and Kenyan Drake saw a pitiful two carries. We see what Harbaugh thinks of his RB duo, and Edwards will get the lion share. This spread is at 9.5 points, and the Broncos have given up over 4.3YPC in the last 2 games. This may the week the wheels fall off completely for them if they haven’t already. Should this game get out of hand, Jackson will not be scrambling to pick up yards, but Edwards will be in managing the clock. He should get in the end zone on a goal-line situation on Sunday.
Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA (+135)
This one is pretty self-explanatory. The entire game is a “revenge game” across both rosters. Wilson has scored a TD in 3 straight games as Dolphin and I can’t see that ending on Sunday. James Conner managed to pound one in against SF two weeks ago, so I’m expecting Wilson to get a few opportunities inside the 10.
AJ Brown, PHI (+130)
I might as well title this week’s article “Revenge”. We know this one is at the top of everyone’s mind. Brown faces off against the team that traded him away and he gets to do it in his new city. At home, Brown has 5 of his 7 TDs on the season and the Titans have given up 14 TDs to opposing WRs this year and they are dead last in DVOA against deep passes. This one is too good to ignore.
Mid-Tier
James Robinson, NYJ (+300)
Robinson was a healthy scratch last week and Michael Carter Jr will likely be inactive this Sunday, paving the way for Robinson to get back on the field. The Jets coaches were on record this week stating some weeks you need the hammer and some weeks you need the lightning. Well, against an offense like Minnesota, they’ll need the hammer to chew up that clock and keep Kirk Cousins off the field. Robinson should get back into the rotation and certainly in goal-line situations where the Jets can’t afford to get cute like they did versus Chicago and Trevor Siemian. Great value here.
Tyler Higbee, LAR (+400)
Bryce Perkins is out and John Wolford is back in for the Rams on Sunday against the Seahawks. Seattle is 27th overall in DVOA versus TEs and in Wolford’s solo start this year, Higbee was targeted a team-high 8 times. The Seahawks have given up a touchdown to a TE in 2 of the last 3 games.
Degenerate Parlay (+1721)
- Gus Edwards TD + Baltimore ML (+150)
- AJ Brown TD + Philadelphia ML (+210)
- Jeff Wilson Jr. TD (+135)
$10 pays $172
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