Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s Week 12 and these are the sharpest TD lines I’ve seen all season. I normally search in the -110 to +120 range for my favorites, but they are few and far between this week. I refuse to handicap a -220 TD scorer (Jeff Wilson) so this week’s article will require some finesse to find value without throwing out all mid-tier scorers due to odds. I will continue to add in a “+ ML victory” if it brings our odds up to even; I am 2-1 on such plays in the last 3 weeks. I’m currently picking 24% on the year for TD scorers, but these have been one of the hardest plays to handicap. I’m glad I’ve tracked them to show transparency.
We are fortunate enough to receive an EXCLUSIVE odds boost from DraftKings Sportsbook to use on an anytime touchdown scorer bet in the Sunday games. This boost will add +100 odds to the player picked if the original odds are +100 or better, so I will target more players with realistic odds.
Simply click the link in the tweet below to take advantage of our exclusive boost:
🚨 PICKSWISE x DRAFTKINGS BOOST 🚨@DKSportsbook hooked us up and gave us an EXCLUSIVE anytime TD boost for an extra +100! Bet the exclusive boost for this NFL Sunday ONLY with us!
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— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 26, 2022
Jaylen Waddle & Dolphins ML (+155)
Waddle has 6 TDs on the year and is coming out of the bye week with a very favorable opponent ranked 27th in DVOA vs WR2 and 28th in deep passes. Last season against the Texans Waddle exploded for 8 receptions and 83 yards on 10 targets. Despite the 14-point spread, the total still sits at 46.5. Waddle presents great value when adding in a Dolphins ML victory.
Terry McLaurin, WAS (+195)
Wide Receivers have found lots of success against this Falcons secondary. Cooper Kupp (2) DK Metcalf, Brandon Aiyuk (2), Ja’Marr Chase (2), DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney have all found the endzone against Atlanta. With McLaurin at a 22.1% target share and 15.8% in the red zone, I love these odds at nearly 2-1.
Mike Evans, TB (+140)
Evans has been quiet on the TD front despite seeing 17.9% targets in the red zone. The Browns have given up 10 TD to WRs on the year and will likely be without CB Greg Newsome on Sunday due to concussion protocol. Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA for passes on the left (Evans side) and 30th in DVOA for deep passes.
Michael Carter, NYJ (+140)
Carter scored twice last season in the 4 games that Mike White was under center for Jets. He will be used both as a receiver and out of the backfield this Sunday against a Bears defense that has given up 14 total touchdowns to opposing RBs. Carter should be a key factor in the Jets offense this Sunday.
Tee Higgins, CIN (+145)
Ja’Marr Chase is out again this Sunday, and we get Higgins lined up as WR1 against a Titans defense that has given up 13 TDs to opposing WRs. Higgins was a big factor last post season against the Titans (9 targets 7 receptions 96 yards) and will likely draw Roger McCreary in coverage. McCreary has allowed 1 TD in the last 3 games since moving over to that LCB spot.
Gerald Everett, LAC (+320)
Mike Williams is out, but Keenan Allen will suit up in this week’s episode of Chargers WR carousel. The Cardinals have given up a league worst 9 TDs to opposing TEs this season and I’m expecting Everett to have a big day. Everett has been quiet in the TD column since week 4 and this is the perfect opportunity for him to score, luckily the odds are attractive from his recent scoring slump.
Degenerate Parlay (+42628)
- Jaylen Waddle + Miami ML
- Terry McLaurin
- Mike Evans
- Michael Carter
- Tee Higgins
- Gerald Everett
10$ wins $4262
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