Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
The TD Scorer plays have turned themselves around lately. Currently picking 24% on the year and 7-6 over my last 13 picks. We are fortunate enough to receive an EXCLUSIVE odds boost from DraftKings Sportsbook to use on an anytime touchdown scorer bet in the Sunday games. This boost will add +100 odds to the player picked, so I will target more players with realistic odds.
Sadly, the team totals this week are low; only 3 games above 48.5 points. Why does matter? Because it’s easier to hit on a TD scorer when there are 7 available vs 5. However, we will continue to get creative and find value in the spots we are given. Let’s take a look!
Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Week 10 — we’re 76-58-3 on spreads this season (+21.2 units!)
The Favorites
Saquon Barkley, NYG TD + Giants ML (+125)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Yes, I’m going back to this approach where I add a ML favorite to get the play to + odds. Last week I chose Joe Mixon + Bengals. He had 5 TDs and Cincinnati routed the Panthers. Saquon leads the Giants in red zone rushing attempts with 23 on the season for 3 TD. The Giants are -5.5 favorites at home coming off of a bye week. It helps that the Texans redzone defense has been putrid the last 3 weeks, allowing a redzone TD 88.8% of trips. Best to not over thinking it. Giants win outright and Saquon gets in the endzone.
Jamaal Williams, DET (-110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
If I’m taking the 10-cent juice, it’s for good reason. The Bears redzone defense is giving up a TD on 81% of trips over the last 3 games and Williams has dominated the redzone touches for Detroit. Yes, D’andre Swift is finally fully healthy, but his TDs will be predicated on explosive plays. Those are just harder to predict, so I’m going with bread and butter in Williams. The leading redzone passing target for the Lions is Josh Reynolds, who is out again this week and TJ Hockenson is now wearing purple. These redzone trips should belong to Jamaal Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The game total is at 48.5, which is one of the higher ones this week. I’m honestly shocked this isn’t -120 or higher all things considered.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (+125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
WR1’s have had success getting in the endzone against Green Bay this season. Justin Jefferson (x2), Terry McLaurin, and Stefon Diggs all found the endzone. GB edge rusher Rashon Gary, CB Eric Stokes, CB Shemar Jean-Charles, and LB De’Vondre Campbell are all out for the Packers on the defensive side of the ball. It’s becoming winter in Wisconsin, but the forecast currently shows 37 and sunny, which is a greenlight to pass the ball. Lamb scored last week and I like him to get in again this Sunday.
Kareem Hunt, CLE (+160)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Another line with huge disparity compared to other books. Hunt is +100 over on DK, so at +160 I feel priced in. This game total is the second highest of the day at 49.5 and the Dolphins are giving up a TD in the red zone at a 70% rate over the last 3 games. Hunt has survived the trade deadline once again and although this qualifies as “coach speak”, Browns GM Andrew Berry believes Hunt is in for a big 2H of the season. Hunt has 4 TDs on the year and is capable of scoring in both the run and the passing game. If this turns into a track meet, Hunt may see a significant amount of snaps in the 2H over Chubb.
🚨PICKSWISE x DRAFTKINGS BOOST🚨@DKSportsbook hooked us up and gave us an EXCLUSIVE anytime TD boost for an extra +100! Bet the exclusive boost for this NFL Sunday ONLY with us!
BET HERE: https://t.co/U9Yu1e8Aw5 pic.twitter.com/aC9zcVtQ1B
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 12, 2022
The Longshots
Chase Claypool, CHI (+240)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m buying the coach speak on Claypool, but it’s after a promising first game as Bear. HC Matt Eberflus stated they are actively opening up the offensive package for him against Detroit. Last week, Claypool saw 6 targets, drew one pass interference call, and logged a screen pass. They are making it a point to have Claypool be a focal point in this offense and build chemistry with Fields. While it’s early in this experiment, I love the matchup. The Lions are allowing an NFL worst 7.8 yards per attempt and have allowed 8 TDs to opposing WRs this season. They have also allowed a 40+ yard completion 5 times this season. Big day for Claypool coming.
Travis Kelce 2+ TDs (+370)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m confident Kelce gets a touchdown on Sunday, but at -170 I just don’t see the value in it. Kelce has a 4TD game under his belt but has been quiet for the last 3 weeks. The Jags rank dead last in tackling according to PFF and Kelce leads all TEs in broken tackles. He has 19 redzone targets on the season. This might be the Isiah Pacheco game, but I’ve been burned on that too many times this year. This is the highest total on the Sunday slate at 51.5. You can also pivot to Kelce TD + Chiefs ML for -105. The 2TD scorers have been plentiful this season.
Julio Jones, TB (+600)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
There is a huge disparity in line between FD and DK on this one. DK has Julio listed at +360, so we’re going to jump on the +600 FD is offering. Mike Evans is banged up but should be good to go. I like Julio to get back to that 50%+ snap count we’ve seen a few times this season. Jones scored in Week 8 on his highest snap count of the year. Last week vs the Rams was an offensive snooze fest, but the Germany came should have some fireworks. I can’t pass up the value in this as the Bucs “should be” WR3.
Kyren Williams, LAR (+900)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Rams rush offense is arguably the worst in the league, so I’m banking Kyren Williams cannot make it any worse. The rookie RB from Notre Dame steps into a wide-open competition that’s rotated 4 guys midway through the season. Williams has been activated for the first time this season after starting on the IR from a camp injury. Arizona is allowing a redzone TD on 85% of it’s trips over the last 3 weeks and although Williams is more of a 3rd down back, we really don’t know what he could be. At +900, I’m rolling the dice.
Degenerate Parlay (+4478 odds!)
- Saquon Barkley + Giants ML
- Jamaal Williams
- Kareem Hunt
- CeeDee Lamb
- Travis Kelce + Chiefs ML
A $5 bet would payout $223!
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Predictions and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks
