Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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FanDuel Sportsbook is kind enough to give us a “No Sweat Bet” up to $50, meaning if the bet loses, you will be refunded up to $50 in site credit. When I see these promotions, I immediately think of plays with higher odds and in this case, a TD parlay. Normally, I would lay 0.25U on a TD parlay. It’s more for the entertainment factor and a low-risk high-reward activity while I watch RedZone. The cost of a movie ticket these days is around $18 and that’s for 2 hours of entertainment; a $5 lotto parlay is less than 1/3 of the price for a minimum of 4 hours. Talk about value!
Individual player props are the basis of building my bankroll throughout the season, but if I’m giving a free chance at a TD parlay, I will take advantage. Below is how I would approach this “No Sweat Bet”.
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Alvin Kamara to score a touchdown (-145)
Last season for the New Orleans Saints was Jekyl and Hyde. They made a huge transition away from Drew Brees and handed the keys over to Jameis Winston. The early returns were positive; the Saints were 5-2 with Winston and had notched wins over Green Bay, New England and Tampa Bay. In Week 9, Jameis tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season. The Saints sputtered offensively, and it resulted in the worst season of Kamara’s career. He missed 4 games due to a knee injury and never quite looked like his normal self. Fast forward to this season and I expect Kamara to bounce back in a big way.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a season where they finished 29th overall in points allowed and 27th in opponent rushing TDs per game. This Saints offense will continue to revolve around Kamara in both the run and passing game. I expect Kamara to have a heavy workload on Sunday and punch one in.
Be sure to check out our full New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
Nick Chubb to score a touchdown (+110)
If you’ve read my NFL Week 1 Sunday 1 pm slate player props article, you know how high I am on Nick Chubb heading into Week 1. My belief is that the Browns’ offense will use Chubb similar to Jonathan Taylor last season and turn Jacoby Brissett into a game manager until Deshaun Watson returns. The Carolina Panthers may be one of the best opponents to test this theory, as they allowed the 5th-most rushing attempts per game and 9th-most rushing yards per game in 2021. On top of that, they allowed 2 red zone TDs per game last season, tied for 23rd worst in the league. Chubb opened the 2021 season with a 2-TD performance, and I’ll take just one this Sunday.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers predictions
Josh Jacobs to score a touchdown (+120)
I continue to hear a lot about how Josh McDaniels prefers a running back by committee approach and it will negatively impact Josh Jacobs. However, when I look at Damien Harris’ production last season, he operated primarily as the lead back. Harris finished the season with 15 TDs (all rushing) and over 13 carries per game. I expect fellow Alabama RB Josh Jacobs to have a similar role to start the year, where he has been his strongest. Jacobs opened 2021 with a 2-TD performance and had 5 TDs in the first 5 games. I love this at plus-money.
Be sure to check out our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions
Mecole Hardman to score a touchdown (+280)
The longshot of the group. I have two main reasons I love this play: 1. Hardman has the most seniority of any receiver on this roster with Kansas City 2. The Cardinals were ranked 26th in the NFL for most opponent passing TDs per game.
Hardman enters a wide receiver room with new faces in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and rookie Sky Moore. As good as Patrick Mahomes is, it will take more repetitions than the preseason to get in rhythm with his new toys. I expect Hardman to be the familiar target for Mahomes while the rest of the group gets up to speed. At nearly 3-1 odds against one of the worst secondaries in the league, I think Hardman is a hidden gem that will put this parlay’s odds over the edge.
Be sure to check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
AJ Dillon to score a touchdown (+135)
The Green Bay Packers have arguably one of the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL, but conversely, they have one of the best running back duos in the league. Aaron Jones will be needed to play more of a receiving role in this offense to mask other deficiencies and it couldn’t come at a better time for AJ Dillon fans. The 3rd-year running back took a big leap in 2021 and there is still room to grow in 2022.
Dillon finished 2021 strong with 3 TDs in the last 4 games, including 2 against the Minnesota Vikings. While the Vikings’ new offense will finally have an aerial attack thanks to new HC Kevin O’Connell, the Packers will likely be more of a ground and pound team than in the past. Dillon closed the season on 52% and 54% snap share, which is what I expect him to be at this season. I’ll take the plus-money on a red zone running back on the rise.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
NFL Week 1 touchdown scorer parlay odds
The odds for this 5-leg touchdown scorer parlay for NFL Week 1 are +6870, which means a $50 “no sweat bet” from FanDuel Sportsbook could return $3,485.47.
Read Prop Holliday’s best NFL Week 1 4:25 pm slate player props
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