Keith
Show Bio
One of the more interesting games in the Divisional Round takes place in Detroit between the Buccaneers and Lions. The Bucs stunned everybody with a slugging of the Eagles in the Wild Card Round to earn a place in the Divisional Round, but it won’t get any easier against an elite Lions offense. I’ve dug into the player prop market and have two picks to lock in.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
There have been very few spots that have been more profitable than the over on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving line when the game is indoors. Last week against the Rams, St. Brown finished with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 110 yards. That means in 12 games indoors this season, St. Brown has 144, 90, 106, 112, 49, 95, 77, 156, 108, 102, 102, and 110 receiving yards. St. Brown has finished with at least 90 yards in 10 of the 12 games he’s played indoors this season.
For that reason, I’m going right back to the well on Sunday. St. Brown will have a matchup against a Buccaneers secondary that has been one of the worst units since Week 1. In fact, Tampa Bay allowed the 6th most pass attempts and the 6th most passing yards per game in the regular season. The primary reason for the struggles is because the Bucs frequently blitz on pass plays, which leaves their secondary vulnerable. Last week, the Eagles couldn’t protect Jalen Hurts. This week, I’m expecting a different result.
Check out our Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions predictions
Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Quarterbacks must circle the date on the calendar for when they get to play the Lions. In the last 4 games, the Lions defense has surrendered 367, 396, 345, and 411 passing yards. Honestly, I would have taken the over on Baker Mayfield’s passing line even if it was near 265. The Detroit secondary has been the Achilles’ Heel of the team, and there hasn’t been much done to fix it in the recent weeks. Plus, Mayfield has been a completely different quarterback in the last two months.
In his last 5 games, the former #1 pick has 337, 137, 309, 283, and 381 passing yards. The one outlier in that span was in Week 18 when Mayfield was not 100% healthy. However, the former Heisman winner looked more than healthy in the Wild Card Round, and now against a terrible Detroit secondary in a dome, Mayfield has all the advantages he needs to throw for 275 yards.
