Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The rollercoaster of Thanksgiving Day games ends on an uptick in scoring with the Miami Dolphins heading to Green Bay (-3) in the night game. The Dolphins have won 3 straight and are clawing their way back into the AFC playoff picture while the Packers have won 6 of their last 7 in a highly contested NFC. The forecast predicts light snow in Lambeau but not enough to affect this total, currently sitting at 47.
We are all familiar with Tua Tagovailoa’s performance in cold weather from last year’s playoff debacle in Kansas City. Jaylen Waddle exploded last week against the Pats, but will the ping-pong ball bounce back to Tyreek Hill in the midst of a quiet season by his standard? Josh Jacobs is also coming off a 3-touchdown performance and would be getting more attention as a big RB move if Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley weren’t having MVP-caliber seasons in their new homes. You can find out our NFL picks for all the Thanksgiving games and EVERY Week 13 matchup, but for now, let’s get into my best Dolphins vs Packers player prop bet.
Josh Jacobs (GB) over 13.5 receiving yards (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
I noticed a clear trend from this Dolphins’ defense over the last 4 weeks: they’ve allowed no fewer than 6+ targets to opposing RBs. A drastic jump over the first 7 weeks of the season. Josh Jacobs has had a ton of success on the ground in recent months for the Packers with the arrow pointing up; he averaged 15.8 receiving ypg in October and 23.7 in November. His home splits favor higher volume as well in the receiving game, with 3 targets per game in Lambeau compared to 2.4 on the road this season. The Dolphins run 2 high shells and a light box, allowing Jacobs to have success underneath. 1u
Read our full Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers predictions for Thanksgiving TNF, with our expert on a 14-3-1 run!
