Happy hump day! Today we are gifted with a 15-game slate that starts early and will go the entire day. For my best bets, I’ve focused on an afternoon game in Milwaukee and a night game in Los Angeles. Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Colorado Rockies (-112)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There are very few pitchers that I have less faith in than Chris Flexen. Flexen was a bullpen arm for the Mariners in the first half of the season, but he started to lose his job after posting an 0-4 record with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Opponents were hitting .333 with a .940 OPS against him in those 17 games, so it didn’t take long for the Mariners to get rid of him. He was dealt to the Mets at the trade deadline, but New York released him immediately which led him to signing a Minor League deal with the Rockies. In 2 starts for Colorado, the right-hander has allowed 9 runs and 14 hits, including 4 homers, with 6 walks in just 8.2 innings. Hitters have a .389 average, a .467 on-base percentage and 1.245 OPS in that span. And to make it worse, one of those starts was against the Athletics!
Adrian Houser isn’t exactly an ace, but he is far better than Flexen. The right-hander has a 4.19 ERA and hasn’t had the smoothest second half of the season which is why I believe oddsmakers have kept Milwaukee’s run line at a reasonable price. However, 2 of Houser’s 4 starts since the break have come against the Braves. Going from Atlanta to Colorado’s lineup is night and day in every offensive category. In August, the Rockies have a 62 wRC+, which is the 2nd-lowest mark in baseball. I do think that Colorado will get a few runs off Houser, but Flexen doesn’t deserve to be in the big leagues right now. With the better offense, bullpen and starting pitcher, I’m backing Milwaukee by the run line.
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San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels: NRFI (-120)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Shohei Ohtani is a gift to this generation. Besides being one of the best players in the box, he also happens to be a top-5 pitcher in baseball. Ohtani comes into Wednesday night’s game on a 13-inning scoreless streak that spans over his last 2 starts against the Tigers and Mariners. The two-way threat is pretty much exceptional at everything he does, and that includes being successful in the first inning. Ohtani has not allowed a run in the first frame in 8 straight starts and has limited hitters to a .123 average with a 41% strikeout rate in the opening inning. As long as Shohei avoids walks, he could easily sit down San Francisco in order.
One of the best relievers in baseball also happens to be a rookie. Ryan Walker has been fantastic in his first season in the big leagues as he’s posted a 2.52 ERA with a 2.56 xERA in 39.1 innings. Seven of Walker’s 28 appearances have come as an opener, and he’s embraced the role to be able to pitch a little deeper in games. In his most recent 2 starts, Walker has thrown 5.1 scoreless innings and surrendered just 2 hits while striking out 6. Not many pitchers can get away with throwing just 2 pitches, but when you have Walker’s arm angle and movement, 2 pitches are all you need. All it takes is 6 outs to a win, and I’m ready to sweat for those 15 minutes.
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