Seventy-five percent. What does that number mean you ask? It’s my winning percentage in my last 16 best bets! My last best bet was a plus-money odds winner, and I’ve decided to stay on the plus-odds train for tonight’s MLB best bet as well. Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Monday, and be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Kansas City Royals F5 +0.5 over Boston Red Sox (+108)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Kansas City Royals average the fewest runs in the first 5 innings of any team in baseball. So, you may be wondering why I’ve decided to back them (on the road, nonetheless!) on Monday night. The answer is simple — Cole Ragans. Ragans was a bullpen arm for the Texas Rangers but found himself dealt at the trade deadline since the Rangers decided to go all-in on elite veteran pitchers which left Ragans out of the picture. Before he was traded, Ragans appeared in 17 games for the Rangers and posted a 5.92 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He landed in Kansas City, and unlike Texas, the Royals didn’t see Ragans as a middle-innings reliever. They saw potential in the lefty, and that’s why he was immediately placed in the starting rotation.
In 2 starts for the Royals, Ragans has allowed only 1 run and 11 hits with 11 strikeouts in 11 innings to the Rays and Mets. It could be easy to write off that success by saying it was a lot of luck, but digging into Ragans’ advanced metrics, the southpaw allowed a .262 average, .199 xBA and a 26% hard-hit rate in those outings. His pitch arsenal included a fastball, slider, cutter, curveball and changeup, so he basically throws the kitchen sink at you.
I was a huge fan of Brayan Bello in the first half of the season. His advanced metrics kept telling me that he was getting lucky and not to expect this forever, but I refused to believe it — until July happened. Bello had a 5.48 ERA paired with a 1.26 WHIP in 4 starts in July, and his first outing in August wasn’t much better since he was knocked around for 4 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings in Seattle. So in his last 5 starts, the right-hander allowed a .287 batting average and a 49% hard-hit rate along with 11 barrels.
Bello will be backed by a Red Sox offense that has gone cold in the last few weeks as the Sox averaged just 3 runs per game in their last 9. Not only that, but Boston’s lineup has been terrible against lefties since the break. The Sox have the 9th-highest strikeout rate and the 6th-lowest wRC+ against southpaws in the second half of the season. As for the Royals, they rank 4th in batting average and OPS while ranking 5th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 2 weeks. The bottom line is there is excellent value on the Royals to be winning or tied at the end of 5 innings. I’ll also throw 0.25 units on the Royals’ first 5 innings money line at +144.
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